Impacts of Green Hydrogen Uncertainties on the Future Dutch Integrated Energy System of 2030

Impacts of Green Hydrogen Uncertainties on the Future Dutch Integrated Energy System of 2030

mastropietro, elena (TU Delft Technology, Policy and Management)

De Vries, Laurens (mentor)
Correljé, A. (graduation committee)
Ribo-Perez, D.G. (graduation committee)

Delft University of Technology

Complex Systems Engineering and Management (CoSEM)

2023-06-23

Climate change is a very urgent issue for our society. The European Union’s commitment is increasing, as evidenced by the Paris Agreement, and individual nations are also developing strategies to become emission-free within the next few years. This has renewed interest in hydrogen, particularly that produced through electrolysis, as a complement to electrification and as a means to achieve broad economic decarbonisation. Nevertheless, the deployment of green hydrogen faces a significant challenge known as the "chicken-and-egg" threefold coordination problem, which creates a vicious cycle wherein hydrogen supply, demand, and infrastructure developments hinder one another, impeding the formation of a complete value chain. This challenge raises the possibility that only blue hydrogen will be deployed in the medium term. To this end, the main research question we want to address is, “How do hydrogen uncertainties impact the penetration of green hydrogen infrastructure in the 2030 Dutch integrated energy system?”. To answer this main question, we used an exploratory modelling approach applied to the integrated energy system of the Netherlands utilising the Calliope multi-scale energy systems modelling framework. The outcomes of our research encompass various scenarios that pertain to the future integrated energy system of the Netherlands. We devised to examine the impacts of hydrogen uncertainties and specific policies on the integration of green hydrogen infrastructure within the energy system under investigation. Specifically, we formulated these scenarios to account for fluctuations in hydrogen demand, variations in electrolyser capital costs, and the enforcement of a robust policy aimed at prohibiting blue hydrogen production by 2030. The findings derived from the scenario analysis indicate that the realisation of a transition at a sufficient pace to meet the energy objectives set for 2030 can be accomplished through the implementation of robust policies, such as the medium-term ban on blue hydrogen production. Moreover, the study reveals that policies directed towards reducing electrolyser capital costs, as opposed to policies solely focused on stimulating higher hydrogen demand, prove to be more effective in facilitating a swift transition.

Energy transition
Green hydrogen
Coordination problem
Energy system modelling

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:79dc6fb8-a9f4-4d78-8074-f1568f0535b6

Student theses

master thesis

© 2023 elena mastropietro