Elicitation of Rank Correlations with Probabilities of Concordance: Method and Application to Building Management

Ramousse, B.R.; Mendoza Lugo, M.A.; Rongen, G.W.F.; Morales Napoles, O.

doi:10.3390/e26050360

Elicitation of Rank Correlations with Probabilities of Concordance

Title

Elicitation of Rank Correlations with Probabilities of Concordance: Method and Application to Building Management

Author

Ramousse, B.R. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk; Linesight)
Mendoza Lugo, M.A. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)
Rongen, G.W.F. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)
Morales Napoles, O. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk)

Date

2024

Abstract

Constructing Bayesian networks (BN) for practical applications presents significant challenges, especially in domains with limited empirical data available. In such situations, field experts are often consulted to estimate the model’s parameters, for instance, rank correlations in Gaussian copula-based Bayesian networks (GCBN). Because there is no consensus on a ‘best’ approach for eliciting these correlations, this paper proposes a framework that uses probabilities of concordance for assessing dependence, and the dependence calibration score to aggregate experts’ judgments. To demonstrate the relevance of our approach, the latter is implemented to populate a GCBN intended to estimate the condition of air handling units’ components—a key challenge in building asset management. While the elicitation of concordance probabilities was well received by the questionnaire respondents, the analysis of the results reveals notable disparities in the experts’ ability to quantify uncertainty. Moreover, the application of the dependence calibration aggregation method was hindered by the absence of relevant seed variables, thus failing to evaluate the participants’ field expertise. All in all, while the authors do not recommend to use the current model in practice, this study suggests that concordance probabilities should be further explored as an alternative approach for the elicitation of dependence.

Subject

Bayesian networks
concordance probability
building maintenance
expert judgment
dependence calibration

To reference this document use:

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:7ef60b3c-dbf2-4dd0-9dec-7e02b3fec788

DOI

https://doi.org/10.3390/e26050360

ISSN

1099-4300

Source

Entropy: international and interdisciplinary journal of entropy and information studies, 26 (5)

Part of collection

Institutional Repository