Present and future coastal safety assessment of 'De Slufter' anticipating sea level rise and coastal management changes

Abstract

'De Slufter' is a nature conservation area located in the Northwest of the Dutch Wadden island Texel which is inundated with seawater during storm events. The landward side of De Slufter is a sand dike which is part of the primary coastal defence ring of the island. HHNK, which is responsible for the coastal safety of Texel, currently relocates the dynamic gully in the slufter mouth every time it reaches one of the dune heads (every 5-6 years approximately) because uncontrolled gully migration might widen the slufter mouth. This could lead to more wave attack on the sand dike, possibly affectingthe coastal safety of Texel. Still, HHNK is planning on ceasing the relocations of the gully. The goal of this thesis is to assess the effects on the present and future coastal safety of De Slufter. First, based on a field data analysis of annual topography and bathymetry measurements it is expected that the gully migration is governed by wave-induced longshore transport, curvature-induced secondary flow due to tidal forcing, overwash from the beach flat into the gully during storms and by the distance to the dune heads (which inhibits migration) To investigate the effect of ceasing relocations of the gully on present and future coastal safety a modelling study was performed with XBeach Surfbeat. 15 scenarios were created to assess the effects of different bathymetry and of sea level and bed level rise
Failure was assessed on two failure mechanisms: 'Grensprofiel', which consists of two aspects. A minimum sand dike volume above storm surge level must be available in every transect alongshore in the sand dike. Also, each post-storm sand dike transect must be large enough to contain a legally defined 'limit profile'. The second mechanism is 'Initiation of flooding', which means that failure occurs when at any point landward of the 'Waterstaatswerk' boundary (the outer border of the primary coastal defence) a depth of at least 20 cm is observed. In all present scenarios no failure occurs for a normative 1/3000 year storm. De Slufter is therefore considered 'safe'. Maximum wave heights did not increase significantly for different bathymetry configurations due to the large amount of dissipation occurring in the slufter valley. No overwash or overtopping occurred in any of the modelled scenarios and morphological impact on the sand dike itself was relatively low. Failure does occur for the 1/3000 year storm with a sea level rise of 1.95 m and 3.17 m. Failure does not occur in the middle of the sand dike where the majority of the wave attack happens but in the southwestern and northeastern parts due to inundation over the ridge there (‘Initiation of flooding’). It is expected that the 'tipping point' of De Slufter, which is the sea level rise magnitude beyond which De Slufter does not adhere to safety standards, is at a sea level rise magnitude of 1.70 m.