Print Email Facebook Twitter A safety investment optimization model for power grid enterprises based on System Dynamics and Bayesian network theory Title A safety investment optimization model for power grid enterprises based on System Dynamics and Bayesian network theory Author Wu, Jiansong (China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)) Zhang, Linlin (China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)) Bai, Yiping (China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing)) Reniers, G.L.L.M.E. (TU Delft Safety and Security Science) Date 2022 Abstract In recent years, frequent large-scale power grid accidents have caused serious economic losses and bad social impact, which has drawn great attention from power grid enterprises. As one of the key elements of production, safety investment plays an important role in improving the safety level and reducing accident loss. In this paper, System dynamics (SD) and Bayesian network (BN) are integrated to develop a novel safety investment optimization model for power grid enterprises, which takes into account the impact of safety investment factors on accidents and the interactions between them. Based on sensitivity analysis, critical safety investment factors are determined to form the subsystem of the SD model. Subsequently, the optimal safety investment strategy is determined by a three-step simulation. The simulation results show that there are barrel effects and a diminishing marginal utility in safety investment. The proposed safety investment optimization model is practical to provide technical supports and guidance for determining an effective safety investment strategy in power grid enterprises. Subject Bayesian networkOptimizationPower gridSafety investmentSafety investment strategySystem dynamics To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:a149edd6-ef1b-476c-a0f3-ec1a1ddb5d17 DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2022.108331 Embargo date 2023-07-01 ISSN 0951-8320 Source Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 221 Bibliographical note Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public. Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type journal article Rights © 2022 Jiansong Wu, Linlin Zhang, Yiping Bai, G.L.L.M.E. Reniers Files PDF 1_s2.0_S0951832022000126_main.pdf 3.15 MB Close viewer /islandora/object/uuid:a149edd6-ef1b-476c-a0f3-ec1a1ddb5d17/datastream/OBJ/view