Implementing social contagion for the Dutch neighborhood approach of the energy transition

Abstract

95 % of all the buildings in the Netherlands rely on natural gas for heat. But in just 30 years, all of these 7 million homes must have said goodbye to gas forever. A complex project, since the alternative to gas, is not a one size fits all solution. There are several options and their feasibility is highly dependent on the neighborhood context. Therefore, municipalities became responsible for the Dutch energy transition. In the earlier energy transition from coal to gas in the 1980s, there were clear economic benefits for residents. Now, despite the record-breaking gas prices, the long-term returns on investments are uncertain while there are many short-term inconveniences.

The technical side of the energy transition tends to overshadow the social dimension. The technical challenges are clear and the path to work on the viable solution is familiar since the municipalities have been in charge of similar infrastructure projects. The social transition, however, is highly dependent on the local situation and requires time. The municipalities have to become the spider that holds the web of stakeholders together to make this complex process work. To help municipalities stay in charge of the energy transition, Stroomversnelling developed Wijkkompas: a process management tool that guides municipalities from ‘Transitie Visie Warmte’ to ‘Wijk Uitvoerings Plan’. Wijkkompas helps municipalities balance the social and technical side of the transition.

On the social side of the transition, participation is a well-known factor that municipalities already take into account. The goal of participation is to make informed decisions together with residents through representation. However, through participation alone municipalities will not be able to reach all seven million households. Therefore the goal of this thesis is to effectively apply the social contagion method to the Wijkkompas tool since social contagion is a process in which the network in the neighborhood will take on the task of activating residents themselves.

Social contagion theory teaches us both information and behavior can be transmitted in a network. Each has its optimal way of traveling through the network and thus has an optimal seeding strategy. For the energy transition, the transmitting behavior with the snowball strategy can be very valuable. Holistically it would be best to separate the participation from the social contagion approach and run a parallel process. However, for the social transition, we rely on volunteers who are busy and scarce. Therefore we propose a six-step model that adequately combines both techniques for a successful neighborhood transition.

The biggest impact can be made when municipalities find the courage to try out this new activation method. The Lopend vuurtje box, designed in this project, uses the principles of social contagion to spread the method through the inter-municipal network. The box invites its receivers to try out the method for themselves through personal assignment, a small experiment, an educational flyer, and by becoming part of the Lopend vuurtje network by sending the box further along its journey through the Dutch municipal network.