Calculation of dam risk probability of cascade reservoirs considering risk transmission and superposition

Calculation of dam risk probability of cascade reservoirs considering risk transmission and superposition

Wang, Te (Zhengzhou University)
Li, Zongkun (Zhengzhou University)
Ge, W. (TU Delft Safety and Security Science; Zhengzhou University)
Zhang, Yadong (Zhengzhou University)
Jiao, Yutie (Zhengzhou University)
Sun, Heqiang (Zhengzhou University)
Zhang, Hua (Zhengzhou University)

2022-06

Because of the risk transmission and superposition among dams in cascade reservoirs, the analysis and probability calculation of dam risk become more complex compared with a single reservoir. By analyzing the main risk sources and actionmechanisms, the disaster-causing factors, disaster-transmitting body and disaster-bearing body in the cascade reservoirs system were determined. By defining the influence coefficient (IC) to express the transmission and superposition degree of dam risk among cascade reservoirs, dam risk was divided into two parts: own risk (OR) and additional risk (AR). On this basis, the relevant concepts and equations for the calculation of the dam risk probability of cascade reservoirs were proposed. The numerical simulation was carried out to quantify the IC, and a Bayesian network analysis model was constructed to calculate the OR. Finally, taking five cascade reservoir dams in the Dadu River basin as examples, the value of their ORs, ARs and risk probabilities were calculated, and thereafter the weakest cascade, controlling cascade and general cascade in the system were divided. The proposed methodology realizes an effective connection with the dam risk calculation method of a single reservoir, which can provide a reference for the risk assessment and management of cascade reservoirs in the basin.

Cascade reservoirs
Dam break
Probability
Risk superposition
Risk transmission

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:aa6b67ad-6801-43eb-9772-2e96a75211f1

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127768

2023-07-01

0022-1694

Journal of Hydrology, 609

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2022 Te Wang, Zongkun Li, W. Ge, Yadong Zhang, Yutie Jiao, Heqiang Sun, Hua Zhang