Multi-scenario multi-objective robust optimization under deep uncertainty

Multi-scenario multi-objective robust optimization under deep uncertainty: A posteriori approach

Shavazipour, Babooshka (University of Jyväskylä)
Kwakkel, J.H. (TU Delft Policy Analysis)
Miettinen, Kaisa (University of Jyväskylä)

2021

This paper proposes a novel optimization approach for multi-scenario multi-objective robust decision making, as well as an alternative way for scenario discovery and identifying vulnerable scenarios even before any solution generation. To demonstrate and test the novel approach, we use the classic shallow lake problem. We compare the results obtained with the novel approach to those obtained with previously used approaches. We show that the novel approach guarantees the feasibility and robust efficiency of the produced solutions under all selected scenarios, while decreasing computation cost, addresses the scenario-dependency issues, and enables the decision-makers to explore the trade-off between optimality/feasibility in any selected scenario and robustness across a broader range of scenarios. We also find that the lake problem is ill-suited for reflecting trade-offs in robust performance over the set of scenarios and Pareto optimality in any specific scenario, highlighting the need for novel benchmark problems to properly evaluate novel approaches.

Deep uncertainty
Multi-objective optimization
Reference points
Robust decision making scalarizing functions
Scenario planning

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:ae699420-9d54-417c-8eb9-adadc2331eca

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105134

1364-8152

Environmental Modelling & Software, 144

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2021 Babooshka Shavazipour, J.H. Kwakkel, Kaisa Miettinen