Integrated Risk-Capability Analysis under Deep Uncertainty

Abstract

Integrated risk-capability analysis methodologies for dealing with increasing degrees of complexity and deep uncertainty are urgently needed in an ever more complex and uncertain world. Although scenario approaches, risk assessment methods, and capability analysis methods are used, few organizations and nations use truly integrated risk-capability approaches, and almost none use integrated risk-capability approaches that take dynamic complexity and deep uncertainty seriously into account. This paper presents and illustrates a novel integrated risk-capability analysis approach for dealing with deeply uncertain dynamically complex risks, and discusses near future developments related to integrated risk-capability analysis for such issues. This approach combines System Dynamics Modeling for dealing with dynamic complexity and Exploratory Modeling and Analysis for dealing with deep uncertainty. This multi-method approach is illustrated here using an acute and a chronic public health risk: a new flu and Lyme disease.