Development and evaluation of flood forecasting models for forecast-based financing using a novel model suitability matrix

Development and evaluation of flood forecasting models for forecast-based financing using a novel model suitability matrix

Hagen, Jenny Sjåstad (IHE Delft Institute for Water Education; Deltares)
Cutler, Andrew (Boston University)
Trambauer, Patricia (Deltares)
Weerts, Albrecht (Deltares; Wageningen University & Research)
Suarez, Pablo (Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre; University College London (UCL))
Solomatine, D.P. (TU Delft Water Resources; IHE Delft Institute for Water Education)

2020

Forecast-based financing is a financial mechanism that facilitates humanitarian actions prior to anticipated floods by triggering release of pre-allocated funds based on exceedance of flood forecast thresholds. This paper presents a novel model suitability matrix that embeds application-specific needs and contingencies at local level on a pilot project of forecast-based financing. The added value of this flexible framework is demonstrated on a set of hydrological and machine learning models. The model suitability matrix facilitates transparency and traceability of subjectivity in model evaluation. This paper advocates a stronger interface between model developers and end users for upscaling of forecast-based financing.

Delft-FEWS
Flood forecasting
Forecast-based financing
Model suitability
Neural network
Open data

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:cf9081ce-bd7d-4297-a613-4adcbb401e93

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2020.100076

Progress in Disaster Science, 6

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2020 Jenny Sjåstad Hagen, Andrew Cutler, Patricia Trambauer, Albrecht Weerts, Pablo Suarez, D.P. Solomatine