Development and evaluation of flood forecasting models for forecast-based financing using a novel model suitability matrix

Journal article (2020)

Authors

Jenny Sjåstad Hagen IHE Delft Institute for Water Education, Deltares
Andrew Cutler Boston University
Albrecht Weerts Deltares, Wageningen University & Research
Pablo Suarez University College London, Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
D.P. Solomatine Water Resources - CEG , IHE Delft Institute for Water Education
Research Group
Water Resources (CEG) (TU Delft)
Copyright: © 2020 Jenny Sjåstad Hagen, Andrew Cutler, Patricia Trambauer, Albrecht Weerts, Pablo Suarez, D.P. Solomatine
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2020.100076
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Published Date

2020

Language

English

Faculty

Civil Engineering & Geosciences

Department

Water Management

Research Group

Water Resources

Abstract

Forecast-based financing is a financial mechanism that facilitates humanitarian actions prior to anticipated floods by triggering release of pre-allocated funds based on exceedance of flood forecast thresholds. This paper presents a novel model suitability matrix that embeds application-specific needs and contingencies at local level on a pilot project of forecast-based financing. The added value of this flexible framework is demonstrated on a set of hydrological and machine learning models. The model suitability matrix facilitates transparency and traceability of subjectivity in model evaluation. This paper advocates a stronger interface between model developers and end users for upscaling of forecast-based financing.