Does the decision rule matter for large-scale transport models?

Journal article (2018)

Authors

S. van Cranenburgh Transport and Logistics -

Caspar G. Chorus Transport and Logistics -

C.G. Chorus Transport and Logistics -

Research Group

Transport and Logistics () (TU Delft)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2018.01.035

Discrete choice modelling Decision rules Large-scale transport models Random Regret Minimization

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Published Date

2018

Language

English

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Faculty

Technology, Policy and Management

Department

Engineering, Systems and Services

Research Group

Transport and Logistics

Abstract

This paper is the first to study to what extent decision rules, embedded in disaggregate discrete choice models, matter for large-scale aggregate level mobility forecasts. Such large-scale forecasts are a crucial underpinning for many transport infrastructure investment decisions. We show, in the particular context of (linear-additive) utility maximization (RUM) and regret minimization (RRM) rules, that the decision rule matters for aggregate level mobility forecasts. We find non-trivial differences between the RUM-based and RRM-based transport model in terms of aggregate forecasts of passenger kilometers, demand elasticities, and monetary benefits of transport policies. This opens up new opportunities for policy analysts to enrich their sensitivity analysis toolbox.

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