Print Email Facebook Twitter International shipping in a world below 2 °C Title International shipping in a world below 2 °C Author Müller-Casseres, Eduardo (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro) van den Berg, Maarten (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency) Dessens, Olivier (University College London) Naghash, H. (TU Delft Ship Design, Production and Operations) Tagomori, Isabela S. (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency) Tsiropoulos, Ioannis (E3-Modelling) van Vuuren, Detlef P. (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; Universiteit Utrecht) Portugal-Pereira, Joana (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro; Lisbon Technical University) de Boer, Harmen Sytze (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency) Schaeffer, Roberto (Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro) Date 2024 Abstract The decarbonization of shipping has become an important policy goal. While integrated assessment models (IAMs) are often used to explore climate mitigation strategies, they typically provide little information on international shipping, which accounts for emissions of around 0.7 GtCO2 yr−1. Here we perform a multi-IAM analysis of international shipping and show the potential for decreasing annual emissions in the next decades, with reductions of up to 86% by 2050. This is primarily achieved through the deployment of low-carbon fuels. Models that represent several potential low-carbon alternatives tend to show a deeper decarbonization of international shipping, with drop-in biofuels, renewable alcohols and green ammonia standing out as the main substitutes for conventional maritime fuels. While our results align with the 2018 emission reduction goal of the International Maritime Organization, their compatibility with the agency’s revised target is still subject to a more definitive interpretation. To reference this document use: http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:f32ee873-cdda-4d0c-9642-24584cabfecc DOI https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-01997-1 Embargo date 2024-11-22 ISSN 1758-678X Source Nature Climate Change, 14 (6), 600-607 Bibliographical note Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public. Part of collection Institutional Repository Document type journal article Rights © 2024 Eduardo Müller-Casseres, Maarten van den Berg, Olivier Dessens, H. Naghash, Isabela S. Tagomori, Ioannis Tsiropoulos, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Joana Portugal-Pereira, Harmen Sytze de Boer, Roberto Schaeffer, More Authors Files file embargo until 2024-11-22