Mortality Attributable to Long-Term Exposure to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter

Mortality Attributable to Long-Term Exposure to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter: Insights from the Epidemiologic Evidence for Understudied Locations

Colonna, Kyle J. (Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health)
Koutrakis, Petros (Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health)
Kinney, Patrick L. (Boston University School of Public Health)
Cooke, R.M. (TU Delft Applied Probability; Resources for the Future)
Evans, John S. (Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health)

2022

Epidemiologic cohort studies have consistently demonstrated that long-term exposure to ambient fine particles (PM_2.5) is associated with mortality. Nevertheless, extrapolating results to understudied locations may involve considerable uncertainty. To explore this issue, this review discusses the evidence for (i) the associated risk of mortality, (ii) the shape of the concentration-response function, (iii) a causal interpretation, and (iv) how the source mix/composition of PM_2.5and population characteristics may alter the effect. The accumulated evidence suggests the following: (i) In the United States, the change in all-cause mortality risk per μg/m³is about 0.8%. (ii) The concentration-response function appears nonlinear. (iii) Causation is overwhelmingly supported. (iv) Fossil fuel combustion-related sources are likely more toxic than others, and age, race, and income may modify the effect. To illustrate the use of our findings in support of a risk assessment in an understudied setting, we consider Kuwait. However, given the complexity of this relationship and the heterogeneity in reported effects, it is unreasonable to think that, in such circumstances, point estimates can be meaningful. Consequently, quantitative probabilistic estimates, which cannot be derived objectively, become essential. Formally elicited expert judgment can provide such estimates, and this review provides the evidence to support an elicitation.

Ambient Air Quality
Causal Inference
Differential Toxicity
Effect Modification
Kuwait
Mortality Risk
PM
Uncertainty

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:0775e5db-1199-4a18-af37-66ef3ee96d0f

https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.1c08343

2023-07-01

0013-936X

Environmental Science & Technology (Washington), 56 (11), 6799-6812

Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository 'You share, we take care!' - Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.

Institutional Repository

review

© 2022 Kyle J. Colonna, Petros Koutrakis, Patrick L. Kinney, R.M. Cooke, John S. Evans