Quantifying urban vulnerability to climate change

Abstract

Various studies indicate that the frequency and intensity of pluvial flooding, groundwater flooding, drought and heat stress will increase in The Netherlands. This is why it is important for Dutch municipalities to have a method for the assessment of vulnerability. However, vulnerability is not directly measurable. Methods to assess the vulnerability of urban areas to climate change are either qualitative and not informative enough or too costly, specific, or complex, and therefore they are not often applied by municipalities. The Adaptation Tipping Point (ATP) method is a promising method that helps municipalities to determine the urgency of climate change adaptation. It comprises assessment of ATPs: “the point where the magnitude of climate change is such that the current management strategy will no longer meet the objectives” (Kwadijk et al., 2010, p.730). In this thesis, the ATP-method is pre-tested as a method for vulnerability assessment in Rotterdam-Noord and a part of Nijmegen. These case studies, together with past experiences based on literature research, suggest that the method is - in principle - suitable for use as a way of assessing vulnerability by municipalities. It provides useful information in addition to traditional top-down impact and damage assessments. However, more research into improving the feasibility of the ATP-method, for example through estimation of ATPs on the basis of either rules of thumb or expert judgement, is necessary to make the method practically feasible. In addition, the application of the method to the theme of pluvial flooding is a proof of principle; it needs to be applied to the themes of groundwater flooding, drought and heat stress on municipal level as well.