InSAR-based analysis and monitoring of hazardous glacial lakes in the Himalaya

Abstract

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are outbursts caused by the failure of glacial lake moraine dams. Longer ongoing processes, such as moraine dam degradation, or instantaneous events, such as landslides, can trigger dam failure. GLOFs have a catastrophic downstream impact leading to significant economic damages and more than 12000 casualties worldwide until 2015, with Bhutan and Nepal being impacted the most. Climate change causes increasing temperature and precipitation, leading to the expansion of glacial lakes and the destabilisation of glaciers, slopes and moraine dams. Consequently, GLOFs are likely to become more frequent, and glacial lakes require continuous monitoring and analysis to understand and predict GLOF-related hazards.

Since glacial lakes often lie in inaccessible mountainous regions, on-site monitoring is challenging and remote sensing proposes a safe and cost-effective solution. Satellite radar is unaffected by nighttime and clouds, enabling continuous displacement measurements. Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) using Sentinel-1 data from 2014 to 2021 was applied at six Himalayan glacial lake areas (Imja, Lunana, Barun, Rolpa, Thulagi and Lumding) to identify potential GLOF hazards and to investigate InSAR's capability as a monitoring tool. Optical, meteorological and topographical data were used to aid in interpreting the InSAR observations; linking displacements to potential hazards and evaluating the limitations of an InSAR-based analysis.

Significant deformation was detected at the terminal moraines of Imja, Thulagi, Rolpa, Lunana and Barun Lakes; on lateral moraines at Rolpa and Lunana Lakes; and on rock glaciers at Imja, Rolpa, Barun and Lunana Lakes. In addition, significant seasonal variation could be distinguished, showing the impact of temperature and precipitation on geomorphological processes and potential hazard developments at glacial lakes. InSAR-related limitations arose in regions with significant topographic variations, extant snow or vegetation covers, and rapid displacements.

This study demonstrates the capability of satellite InSAR as a glacial lake monitoring tool. An InSAR-based analysis is instrumental in highlighting areas from where GLOFs could originate, requiring mitigation measures or further investigation to map the impact of failure. By extending the research frame over multiple years, continuous and long-term monitoring could demonstrate the climatic influence on displacements and GLOF trigger developments.