S.L.M. Lhermitte
Please Note
92 records found
1
While of critical importance for coastal communities, Antarctica’s future sea-level contribution remains highly uncertain. This uncertainty largely stems from the complex interaction between the ocean and the ice shelves, which is both difficult to observe and model. To better understand and constrain land-ice response to reduced buttressing exerted by ice shelves, efforts are needed to fully comprehend basal melt rates and their impact on ice shelf weakening and retreat. Here we present high-resolution basal melt maps (50 m) of vulnerable ice shelves based on a combination of stereo imagery and satellite altimetry, revealing pronounced channelized melting patterns whose melt rates were previously substantially underestimated (42–50%), which could result in faster channel breakthrough. Accurately simulating small-scale dynamics in ice-sheet models remains challenging but is essential for accurate sea-level rise projections.
Damage features, such as rifts and crevasses, are the first signs of a weakened ice shelf and the precursor for retreat. Yet, damage changes are not widely quantified on Antarctic ice shelves, leaving future ice shelf weakening poorly understood. Here we use satellite imagery to detect both long-term (24-year) and short-term (annual, 2015–2021) Antarctic-wide damage changes, revealing a multiyear damage development cycle strongly correlated to ice shelf area changes, and a net decline in damaged area from 1997 to 2021. We establish a data-driven link between damage and ice flow characteristics, which shows that ice flow acceleration, strain rate increases and thinning lead to more damage development, in particular under high-emission climate scenarios. This sensitivity to warming suggests that without quantification of damage impacts by detailed physical models the (timing of) ice shelf retreat and Antarctic mass loss may currently be underestimated.
Snow cover is a crucial driver for plant species distributions in cold environments. The primary source of snow cover data used in distribution models is remotely sensed satellite imagery, which is characterized by coarser spatial resolutions than plot-scale observations of plant distributions. This scale-mismatch was hypothesized to limit model accuracy. Here, we used a common modeling framework to assess the contribution of snow melt-out dates derived from four data sources (satellite imagery, numerical snowpack modeling, webcam imagery and in-situ soil temperature measurements) at 1 m and 20 m spatial resolution to the predictive power of distribution models of 74 plant species in an alpine landscape of the Austrian Alps. We found that >80 % of the distribution models of all species were significantly improved by at least one snow melt-out data set when considering Area Under the Curve (AUC). Satellite-based melt-out led to significantly improved models for the highest number of species (>50 % for AUC) and increased True-Skill-Statistic and AUC on average by 16 % and 5 %, respectively. Surprisingly, fine-scale and in-situ measured melt-out data did not improve models more than the coarser scale (20 m) satellite-based melt-out data. Moreover, numerical snowpack modeling delivered results comparable to the other sources, which supports its use for projecting future species distributions. We conclude that the additional effort needed for producing high resolution, in-situ datasets as compared to commonly used satellite imagery might hence be worthwhile for some species but not for plant distribution modeling in cold ecosystems in general.
Brief communication
Tides and damage as drivers of lake drainages on Shackleton Ice Shelf
To investigate the drivers of lake drainages in Antarctica, we analyzed optical remote sensing data from the Shackleton Ice Shelf in East Antarctica over seven melt seasons, 2016 to 2023. Our study identified seven drainage event in 2016-2017, one in 2018-2019, fifteen in 2019-2020, and two in 2020-2021. All identified drainages occurred in regions with relatively medium to high levels of satellite-derived ice shelf damage and, except one, all with active damage development. Additionally, 17 out of 25 drainages coincided with increases in tidal heights. These findings provide insights into the factors influencing current lake drainages in Antarctica in both timing and distribution.
Integrating radar and multi-spectral data to detect cocoa crops
A deep learning approach
Climate change and human-induced land degradation threaten dryland ecosystems, vital to one-third of the global population and pivotal to inter-annual global carbon fluxes. Early warning systems are essential for guiding conservation, climate change mitigation and alleviating food insecurity in drylands. However, contemporary methods fail to provide large-scale early warnings effectively. Here we show that a machine learning-based approach can predict the probability of abrupt shifts in Sudano–Sahelian dryland vegetation functioning (75.1% accuracy; 76.6% precision) particularly where measures of resilience (temporal autocorrelation) are supplemented with proxies for vegetation and rainfall dynamics and other environmental factors. Regional-scale predictions for 2025 highlight a belt in the south of the study region with high probabilities of future shifts, largely linked to long-term rainfall trends. Our approach can provide valuable support for the conservation and sustainable use of dryland ecosystem services, particularly in the context of climate change projected drying trends.
Remote sensing of the global cryosphere
Status, processes, and trends
Driven by rapid technological advances in cryospheric science and the emergence of new generations of remote sensing observations, this special issue of Remote Sensing of Environment, entitled “Remote sensing of the global cryosphere: status, processes, and trends”, brings together 23 studies published between 2023 and 2025. Collectively, these papers showcase how multi-sensor satellite observations, high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs), and cutting-edge deep learning techniques are revolutionizing the monitoring of glaciers, snow, glacial lakes, permafrost, sea ice, and ice shelves across the Earth's three poles: the Arctic (including Greenland), Antarctica, and High Mountain Asia (the Third Pole). These studies integrate diverse datasets – including multisource DEMs, optical, thermal, and passive microwave imageries, as well as RADAR, LiDAR, and GRACE observations - to quantify glacier mass balance, map glacial lakes, assess permafrost thermal conditions, classify sea-ice types, and detect icebergs. We organize the publications by major cryospheric themes and their distribution across polar regions and summarize the dominant remote sensing datasets and methodologies employed. Finally, we outline future directions, emphasizing multi-sensor data fusion, physics-informed modeling, and AI-driven approaches to improve predictions of cryospheric change under a warming climate.
Patagonian glaciers have been rapidly losing mass in the last two decades, but the driving processes remain poorly known. Here we use two state-of-the-art regional climate models to reconstruct long-term (1940-2023) glacier surface mass balance (SMB), i.e., the difference between precipitation accumulation, surface runoff and sublimation, at about 5 km spatial resolution, further statistically downscaled to 500 m. High-resolution SMB agrees well with in-situ observations and, combined with solid ice discharge estimates, captures recent GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite mass change. Glacier mass loss coincides with a long-term SMB decline (−0.35 Gt yr−2), primarily driven by enhanced surface runoff (+0.47 Gt yr−2) and steady precipitation. We link these trends to a poleward shift of the subtropical highs favouring warm northwesterly air advections towards Patagonia (+0.14°C dec−1 at 850 hPa). Since the 1940s, Patagonian glaciers have lost 1350 ± 449 Gt of ice, equivalent to 3.7 ± 1.2 mm of global mean sea-level rise.
MAT-MS
A mask-aware transformer for constructing gap-free MODIS normalized difference snow index products
The Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) is essential for accurate snow monitoring, but the widely used MODIS NDSI products generally have significant data gaps mainly due to cloud cover. Existing gap-filling methods often introduce artifact issue in regions with extensive and persistent cloud cover, where gap areas produce inaccurate results influenced by cloud shapes. To address NDSI gap-filling issue, we developed a mask-aware Transformer integrating multi-source data (MAT-MS) to effectively fill these gaps in MODIS NDSI data. The MAT-MS model leverages spatiotemporal information related to meteorology, topography, and geographic location. By incorporating a mask-aware technique, the MAT-MS can learn cloud shapes and patterns, helping to mitigate the common artifact issue. Validation using data from the Tibetan Plateau demonstrated the superior performance of the MAT-MS model, with averaged MAE, RMSE, and R2 of 1.585, 5.531, and 0.868, respectively. The model reduced RMSE by over 30 % compared to traditional spatiotemporal interpolation methods, and by 9 % compared to mainstream deep learning models. Using MAT-MS, we generated a daily gap-free NDSI dataset for the Tibetan Plateau spanning from 2003 to 2020. This spatiotemporally continuous dataset is critical for detailed snow identification, enabling enhanced estimates of snow cover area, fractional snow cover, and snow depth. The flexibility of the MAT-MS model also makes it applicable to a wide range of continuous remote sensing datasets affected by data gaps.
Rivers and slush fields on the Greenland Ice Sheet increasingly develop in locations where the accumulation zone hosts near-impermeable ice slabs. However, the division between runoff versus retention in these areas remains unmeasured. We present field measurements of superimposed ice formation onto slabs around the visible runoff limit. The quantity of superimposed ice varies by proximity to visible surface water and the surface slope, highlighting that meltwater can flow laterally before refreezing. We use heat conduction modelling and radar observations of autumn wetness to show that in our field area in 2022, 65% of superimposed ice formed during summer and the rest during autumn in the relict supraglacial hydrological network. Overall, 84% of melt around the visible runoff limit refroze. Ice-sheet-wide we estimate that slabs refroze 56 gigatonnes of melt (26-69 gigatonnes according to slab extent) between 2017 and 2022. Slabs are thus both hotspots of refreezing and emerging zones of runoff.
Snowfall is an important climate change indicator affecting surface albedo, glaciers, sea ice, freshwater storage, cloud lifetime, and ecosystems. Precise snowfall measurements at high latitudes are particularly important for the estimation of the mass balance of ice sheets; however, the snowfall is difficult to quantify with in situ measurements in those locations. In this context, spaceborne radar and radiometer atmospheric missions can help in the assessment of snowfall at high latitudes. The decommissioned NASA CloudSat mission provided invaluable information about global snowfall climatology from 2006 to 2023. The CloudSat-based estimates of global snowfall are considered the reference for global snowfall estimates, but these data suffer from poor sampling and the inability to see shallow or retrieve heavy precipitation, which limits their use, for example, as input to surface mass balance models of the major ice sheets. WIVERN (WInd VElocity Radar Nephoscope), one of the ESA Earth Explorer 11 selected missions, is equipped with a conical scanning 94 GHz Doppler radar and a passive 94 GHz radiometer, with the main objective of measuring global in-cloud horizontal winds, but also quantifying cloud ice water content and precipitation rate. Its conically scanning system, with a 42° incidence angle, is expected to reduce the radar blind zone near the surface (especially over the ocean) and allows the mission to have a swath width of 800 km and 70 times more sampled points than a fixed-looking instrument. The proposed radar measurements tackle the current uncertainties in snowfall estimates, highly improving the sampling frequency and accuracy of snowfall measurements. The uncertainty in snowfall measurements arises from various factors, including the diurnal cycle, uncertainty in the <Z-<S relationship, and the sampling error. This study quantifies each of these contributors individually and demonstrates the improved sampling capabilities of the WIVERN conically scanning geometry for some specific regions (Antarctica, Greenland) by computing the sampling error at different spatial and temporal scales via simulations of WIVERN vs. CloudSat orbits and scanning geometry, based on the snowfall rates produced by ERA5 reanalysis. Results show that a WIVERN-like conically scanning system significantly reduces the uncertainty in polar snowfall estimates if compared to a CloudSat-like near-nadir fixed viewing geometry. While CloudSat generates acceptable errors at the annual zonal scales, WIVERN can produce estimates within the climatological variability for latitude-longitude domain larger than 0.5° × 0.5° already at the monthly timescale, making it a valuable product for regional climate model evaluation and as an input to surface mass balance models of the major ice sheets and glaciers.
blue ice areas in the interior of the continent. In these blue ice areas, meteorological processes and a redirected ice flow lead to the removal of surface layers. All material that was once embedded in the removed layers of ice becomes exposed at the surface, including meteorites. Consequently, meteorite concentrations can be collected in the field, as the meteorites’ dark color visually contrasts with the light-blue colored ice. However, meteorites can disappear from the surface when they warm up in the sun and melt the underlying ice. The dark meteorites warm up more than the ice as they absorb more solar radiation. As such, most of the ice remains frozen, but very local melt takes place directly under the meteorite. This melt creates a depression in the ice which over time deepens to a hole, and in conjunction with refreezing meltwater the meteorite fully disappears from the surface, hidden from sight during recovery missions. This process can explain why no meteorites have been found in areas where temperatures are relatively high [1]. Moreover, in a warming climate, meteorites are more prone to become unrecoverable.
Using a data-driven approach, we estimated that with the currently increasing surface temperatures, meteorite loss rates exceed recovery rates by a factor of five [2]. To estimate this loss rate, we first calculated the total number of Antarctic meteorites using a machine learning algorithm that identifies meteorite-rich sites using over 12,000 known meteorite finding locations and their corresponding properties such as ice flow velocity and surface temperature. Next, we used the same algorithm, but altered the surface temperature input based on regional climate model simulations. Consequently, we obtained the number of meteorites until the end of the century under a low and a high emissions scenario. Until mid-century, the projected losses are identical for the emissions scenarios, after which losses are reduced for the low emissions scenario and nearly constant for the high emissions scenario. By correlating meteorite losses directly to global temperature increases, we estimated that for every tenth of a degree of global warming 1-2% of the current number of meteorites is lost.
These future projections demonstrate how climate change threatens Antarctic meteorites. With temperatures remaining well below zero, even with several degrees of warming, meteorites are affected even by very minor (decimal) increases of surface temperatures during exceptionally warm events, which are expected to occur more frequently. These results motivate an intensification of Antarctic meteorite recovery missions, prioritizing the most prone low-elevation areas.
References:
[1] Harvey, R. (2003) Geochemistry 63(2):93-147.
[2] Tollenaar, V., Zekollari, H., Kittel, C., Farinotti, D., Lhermitte, S., Debaille, V., Goderis, S., Claeys, P., Joy, K.H., and Pattyn, F. (2024) Nature Climate Change 14(4):340-343. ...
blue ice areas in the interior of the continent. In these blue ice areas, meteorological processes and a redirected ice flow lead to the removal of surface layers. All material that was once embedded in the removed layers of ice becomes exposed at the surface, including meteorites. Consequently, meteorite concentrations can be collected in the field, as the meteorites’ dark color visually contrasts with the light-blue colored ice. However, meteorites can disappear from the surface when they warm up in the sun and melt the underlying ice. The dark meteorites warm up more than the ice as they absorb more solar radiation. As such, most of the ice remains frozen, but very local melt takes place directly under the meteorite. This melt creates a depression in the ice which over time deepens to a hole, and in conjunction with refreezing meltwater the meteorite fully disappears from the surface, hidden from sight during recovery missions. This process can explain why no meteorites have been found in areas where temperatures are relatively high [1]. Moreover, in a warming climate, meteorites are more prone to become unrecoverable.
Using a data-driven approach, we estimated that with the currently increasing surface temperatures, meteorite loss rates exceed recovery rates by a factor of five [2]. To estimate this loss rate, we first calculated the total number of Antarctic meteorites using a machine learning algorithm that identifies meteorite-rich sites using over 12,000 known meteorite finding locations and their corresponding properties such as ice flow velocity and surface temperature. Next, we used the same algorithm, but altered the surface temperature input based on regional climate model simulations. Consequently, we obtained the number of meteorites until the end of the century under a low and a high emissions scenario. Until mid-century, the projected losses are identical for the emissions scenarios, after which losses are reduced for the low emissions scenario and nearly constant for the high emissions scenario. By correlating meteorite losses directly to global temperature increases, we estimated that for every tenth of a degree of global warming 1-2% of the current number of meteorites is lost.
These future projections demonstrate how climate change threatens Antarctic meteorites. With temperatures remaining well below zero, even with several degrees of warming, meteorites are affected even by very minor (decimal) increases of surface temperatures during exceptionally warm events, which are expected to occur more frequently. These results motivate an intensification of Antarctic meteorite recovery missions, prioritizing the most prone low-elevation areas.
References:
[1] Harvey, R. (2003) Geochemistry 63(2):93-147.
[2] Tollenaar, V., Zekollari, H., Kittel, C., Farinotti, D., Lhermitte, S., Debaille, V., Goderis, S., Claeys, P., Joy, K.H., and Pattyn, F. (2024) Nature Climate Change 14(4):340-343.
Large Variability in Dominant Scattering from Sentinel-1 SAR in East Antarctica
Challenges and Opportunities
Assessing the Surface Mass Balance (SMB) of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is crucial for understanding its response to climate change. Synthetic Aperture Radar observations from Sentinel-1 provide the potential to monitor the variability of SMB processes through changes in the scattering response of near-surface and internal snow layers. However, the interplay between several factors, such as accumulation, wind erosion, deposition, and melt, complicates the interpretation of scattering changes of the microwave signal. Additionally, lack of reliable ground truth measurements of the snow surface limits our capability to associate the SMB processes with dominant scattering mechanism. In this study, we aim to quantify the dominant scattering in Sentinel-1 signal and evaluate the scattering changes in drifting snow-dominated regions of East Antarctica. We introduce a scattering indicator, alpha -{text{scat},varepsilon }, derived from scattering-type and entropy descriptors, providing a measure between volume and pure scattering. By relating the field measurements to alpha -{text{scat},varepsilon }, we establish that the evolution of dominant scattering in the presence of snowdrift is complex. First, alpha -{text{scat},varepsilon } strongly correlates with surface roughness (R^{2}=0.92, RMSE =2^circ). Spatially variable erosion patterns significantly increase the roughness and result in a strong affinity towards pure scattering despite net accumulation. Second, high surface densities also tend to influence pure scattering; however, the effect is dependent on the accumulation rate. With more accumulation, we observe an increasing dominance of volume scattering from internal snow layers. Long-term trends in alpha -{text{scat},varepsilon } (2017/2023) further suggest that it is challenging to address the causes behind the scattering source based on a single snow surface process. We thus demonstrate the potential and limitations of alpha -{text{scat},varepsilon } to infer the variability in dominant scattering from changes in surface processes.
Publisher Correction
Firn on ice sheets
In the version of the article initially published, in Fig. 5, under “Radar altimeter”, “O(16–160 m)” previously read “O(16–160 km)”. This has now been corrected in the HTML and PDF versions of the article. ...
Correction to: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00507-9, published online 23 January 2024.
In the version of the article initially published, in Fig. 5, under “Radar altimeter”, “O(16–160 m)” previously read “O(16–160 km)”. This has now been corrected in the HTML and PDF versions of the article.