Damage development on Antarctic ice shelves sensitive to climate warming

Abstract

Damage features, such as rifts and crevasses, are the first signs of a weakened ice shelf and the precursor for retreat. Yet, damage changes are not widely quantified on Antarctic ice shelves, leaving future ice shelf weakening poorly understood. Here we use satellite imagery to detect both long-term (24-year) and short-term (annual, 2015–2021) Antarctic-wide damage changes, revealing a multiyear damage development cycle strongly correlated to ice shelf area changes, and a net decline in damaged area from 1997 to 2021. We establish a data-driven link between damage and ice flow characteristics, which shows that ice flow acceleration, strain rate increases and thinning lead to more damage development, in particular under high-emission climate scenarios. This sensitivity to warming suggests that without quantification of damage impacts by detailed physical models the (timing of) ice shelf retreat and Antarctic mass loss may currently be underestimated.