Observing glacier mass changes is essential for understanding and projecting the impacts of climate change on sea-level rise, water resources and natural hazards, as well as providing data for developing, calibrating and validating glacier evolution models. The principal methods used to measure glacier mass changes - glaciological, geodetic (surface elevation differencing) and gravimetric - differ in the spatial and temporal scales at which they are most effectively applied. Here, we review these methods in the context of challenges that arise when comparing published mass-balance estimates. Compatibility can be hampered by (1) inconsistent reporting and lack of relevant information; (2) discrepancies in which mass-balance components are included; (3) differences in the time span analyzed; and (4) variations in the spatial domain of the reported mass balance. We provide recommendations for more rigorous and comprehensive reporting of mass-balance estimates to improve comparability and synthesis of reported glacier mass changes, and we emphasize open data and code sharing to enable full reproducibility and future reinterpretation. Our recommendations apply equally to both glacier and ice-sheet mass-balance reporting, and they are generally valid for mass balances simulated by numerical models.

While of critical importance for coastal communities, Antarctica’s future sea-level contribution remains highly uncertain. This uncertainty largely stems from the complex interaction between the ocean and the ice shelves, which is both difficult to observe and model. To better understand and constrain land-ice response to reduced buttressing exerted by ice shelves, efforts are needed to fully comprehend basal melt rates and their impact on ice shelf weakening and retreat. Here we present high-resolution basal melt maps (50 m) of vulnerable ice shelves based on a combination of stereo imagery and satellite altimetry, revealing pronounced channelized melting patterns whose melt rates were previously substantially underestimated (42–50%), which could result in faster channel breakthrough. Accurately simulating small-scale dynamics in ice-sheet models remains challenging but is essential for accurate sea-level rise projections.

We present a dataset of Antarctic annual surface melt rates (6.25 km resolution, 2011–2021) from 19 GHz Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS). First, melt occurrence is detected via thresholds for brightness temperature, diurnal variation, and winter anomaly, calibrated with Automatic Weather Station (AWS) data. Second, AWS-driven surface energy balance modeling yields an empirical relation between annual melt days and water-equivalent melt volume. SSMIS-derived melt volumes correlate well with AWS-based melt estimates (^R2=0.83). Compared to QuikSCAT and RACMO2.4p1 outputs, SSMIS captures a similar spatial melt pattern but estimates a total melt volume approximately 15 % lower than RACMO2.4, on the decadal average.

Patagonian glaciers have been rapidly losing mass in the last two decades, but the driving processes remain poorly known. Here we use two state-of-the-art regional climate models to reconstruct long-term (1940-2023) glacier surface mass balance (SMB), i.e., the difference between precipitation accumulation, surface runoff and sublimation, at about 5 km spatial resolution, further statistically downscaled to 500 m. High-resolution SMB agrees well with in-situ observations and, combined with solid ice discharge estimates, captures recent GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite mass change. Glacier mass loss coincides with a long-term SMB decline (−0.35 Gt yr⁻²), primarily driven by enhanced surface runoff (+0.47 Gt yr⁻²) and steady precipitation. We link these trends to a poleward shift of the subtropical highs favouring warm northwesterly air advections towards Patagonia (+0.14°C dec⁻¹ at 850 hPa). Since the 1940s, Patagonian glaciers have lost 1350 ± 449 Gt of ice, equivalent to 3.7 ± 1.2 mm of global mean sea-level rise.

To investigate the drivers of lake drainages in Antarctica, we analyzed optical remote sensing data from the Shackleton Ice Shelf in East Antarctica over seven melt seasons, 2016 to 2023. Our study identified seven drainage event in 2016-2017, one in 2018-2019, fifteen in 2019-2020, and two in 2020-2021. All identified drainages occurred in regions with relatively medium to high levels of satellite-derived ice shelf damage and, except one, all with active damage development. Additionally, 17 out of 25 drainages coincided with increases in tidal heights. These findings provide insights into the factors influencing current lake drainages in Antarctica in both timing and distribution.

Glaciers are indicators of ongoing anthropogenic climate change¹. Their melting leads to increased local geohazards², and impacts marine³ and terrestrial^4,5 ecosystems, regional freshwater resources⁶, and both global water and energy cycles^7,8. Together with the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, glaciers are essential drivers of present^9,10 and future^{11, 12–13} sea-level rise. Previous assessments of global glacier mass changes have been hampered by spatial and temporal limitations and the heterogeneity of existing data series^{14, 15–16}. Here we show in an intercomparison exercise that glaciers worldwide lost 273 ± 16 gigatonnes in mass annually from 2000 to 2023, with an increase of 36 ± 10% from the first (2000–2011) to the second (2012–2023) half of the period. Since 2000, glaciers have lost between 2% and 39% of their ice regionally and about 5% globally. Glacier mass loss is about 18% larger than the loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet and more than twice that from the Antarctic Ice Sheet¹⁷. Our results arise from a scientific community effort to collect, homogenize, combine and analyse glacier mass changes from in situ and remote-sensing observations. Although our estimates are in agreement with findings from previous assessments^{14, 15–16} at a global scale, we found some large regional deviations owing to systematic differences among observation methods. Our results provide a refined baseline for better understanding observational differences and for calibrating model ensembles^12,16,18, which will help to narrow projection uncertainty for the twenty-first century^11,12,18.

Damage features, such as rifts and crevasses, are the first signs of a weakened ice shelf and the precursor for retreat. Yet, damage changes are not widely quantified on Antarctic ice shelves, leaving future ice shelf weakening poorly understood. Here we use satellite imagery to detect both long-term (24-year) and short-term (annual, 2015–2021) Antarctic-wide damage changes, revealing a multiyear damage development cycle strongly correlated to ice shelf area changes, and a net decline in damaged area from 1997 to 2021. We establish a data-driven link between damage and ice flow characteristics, which shows that ice flow acceleration, strain rate increases and thinning lead to more damage development, in particular under high-emission climate scenarios. This sensitivity to warming suggests that without quantification of damage impacts by detailed physical models the (timing of) ice shelf retreat and Antarctic mass loss may currently be underestimated.

Historical aerial imagery provides valuable data from regions and periods with limited geospatial information. A common method to utilize this data is through the generation of ortho-photos and 3D models using Structure-from-Motion (SfM) techniques. However, many of these images were scanned decades after their acquisition and require geometric calibration, along with internal and external camera parameter estimation, for accurate reconstruction. Manual identification of key features, such as fiducial marks and text annotations, is labour-intensive, while existing automated methods struggle with poor-quality datasets. This paper presents an automated workflow that combines computer vision and machine learning techniques to detect and extract these key features from historical aerial images. To address challenges related to image quality, we also introduce estimation protocols that compensate for missing or unreliable detections by leveraging redundancy across multiple flight paths. The methodology was evaluated on the TMA (Trimetrogon Aerial) archive, a collection of historical images from the Antarctic Peninsula. Our test dataset comprised over 7000 images from 20 different flight paths. The workflow demonstrated high success rates in detecting and extracting fiducial marks, image subsets, and textual annotations. Approximately 70% of the images provided usable focal length data, while fiducial mark detection exhibited high accuracy except in cases of severe scanning artifacts. Altitude data extraction proved to be the most challenging, with successful results in only 15% of images due to degraded altimeter readings. Despite these limitations, the automated workflow effectively estimated missing parameters, ensuring robust image reconstruction across flight paths. The code for this workflow is open-source and publicly available on GitHub at https://github.com/fdahle/hist_meta_extraction.

Assessing the Surface Mass Balance (SMB) of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is crucial for understanding its response to climate change. Synthetic Aperture Radar observations from Sentinel-1 provide the potential to monitor the variability of SMB processes through changes in the scattering response of near-surface and internal snow layers. However, the interplay between several factors, such as accumulation, wind erosion, deposition, and melt, complicates the interpretation of scattering changes of the microwave signal. Additionally, lack of reliable ground truth measurements of the snow surface limits our capability to associate the SMB processes with dominant scattering mechanism. In this study, we aim to quantify the dominant scattering in Sentinel-1 signal and evaluate the scattering changes in drifting snow-dominated regions of East Antarctica. We introduce a scattering indicator, alpha -{text{scat},varepsilon }, derived from scattering-type and entropy descriptors, providing a measure between volume and pure scattering. By relating the field measurements to alpha -{text{scat},varepsilon }, we establish that the evolution of dominant scattering in the presence of snowdrift is complex. First, alpha -{text{scat},varepsilon } strongly correlates with surface roughness (R^{2}=0.92, RMSE =2^circ). Spatially variable erosion patterns significantly increase the roughness and result in a strong affinity towards pure scattering despite net accumulation. Second, high surface densities also tend to influence pure scattering; however, the effect is dependent on the accumulation rate. With more accumulation, we observe an increasing dominance of volume scattering from internal snow layers. Long-term trends in alpha -{text{scat},varepsilon } (2017/2023) further suggest that it is challenging to address the causes behind the scattering source based on a single snow surface process. We thus demonstrate the potential and limitations of alpha -{text{scat},varepsilon } to infer the variability in dominant scattering from changes in surface processes.

Correction to: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-023-00507-9, published online 23 January 2024.

In the version of the article initially published, in Fig. 5, under “Radar altimeter”, “O(16–160 m)” previously read “O(16–160 km)”. This has now been corrected in the HTML and PDF versions of the article.

The utility of historical image repositories is often limited due to the lack of geo-referencing. A good example is the TriMetrogon Aerial (TMA) archive, a collection of historical aerial images of Antarctica between 1940 and 2000. These images are difficult to use, as their geolocation is only approximately, with location errors in the order of tens of km. This study addresses this challenge by developing an automated geo-referencing workflow that leverages recent advancements in machine-learning-based tie-point matching. We use the algorithm LightGlue, to establish tie-points between geo-referenced Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and historical non-geo-referenced aerial images. To aid the process, we use already known approximate positions of the historical images. Due to the sub-optimal and inhomogeneous quality of the aerial images, only a portion of the images can be geo-referenced directly by matching. For the remaining images, we employed alternative means of geo-referencing, again based on tie-point matching. Out of a subset of 4,459 images located inside the research area, 3,393 images could be geo-referenced, a percentage of 76%. Reasons for the geo-referencing failing are insufficient contrast or an approximate position too far away from the real position. The workflow can easily be applied to historical images from other archives, to enhance the usability of historical image repositories for scientific research.

The joint ESA/NASA Mass-change And Geosciences International Constellation (MAGIC) has the objective to extend time-series from previous gravity missions, including an improvement of accuracy and spatio-temporal resolution. The long-term monitoring of Earth’s gravity field carries information on mass change induced by water cycle, climate change and mass transport processes between atmosphere, cryosphere, oceans and solid Earth. MAGIC will be composed of two satellite pairs flying in different orbit planes. The NASA/DLR-led first pair (P1) is expected to be in a near-polar orbit around 500 km of altitude; while the second ESA-led pair (P2) is expected to be in an inclined orbit of 65^◦–70^◦ at approximately 400 km altitude. The ESA-led pair P2 Next Generation Gravity Mission shall be launched after P1 in a staggered manner to form the MAGIC constellation. The addition of an inclined pair shall lead to reduction of temporal aliasing effects and consequently of reliance on de-aliasing models and post-processing. The main novelty of the MAGIC constellation is the delivery of mass-change products at higher spatial resolution, temporal (i.e. subweekly) resolution, shorter latency and higher accuracy than the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO). This will pave the way to new science applications and operational services. In this paper, an overview of various fields of science and service applications for hydrology, cryosphere, oceanography, solid Earth, climate change and geodesy is provided. These thematic fields and newly enabled applications and services were analysed in the frame of the initial ESA Science Support activities for MAGIC. The analyses of MAGIC scenarios for different application areas in the field of geosciences confirmed that the double-pair configuration will significantly enlarge the number of observable mass-change phenomena by resolving smaller spatial scales with an uncertainty that satisfies evolved user requirements expressed by international bodies such as IUGG. The required uncertainty levels of dedicated thematic fields met by MAGIC unfiltered Level-2 products will benefit hydrological applications by recovering more than 90 per cent of the major river basins worldwide at 260 km spatial resolution, cryosphere applications by enabling mass change signal separation in the interior of Greenland from those in the coastal zones and by resolving small-scale mass variability in challenging regions such as the Antarctic Peninsula, oceanography applications by monitoring meridional overturning circulation changes on timescales of years and decades, climate applications by detecting amplitude and phase changes of Terrestrial Water Storage after 30 yr in 64 and 56 per cent of the global land areas and solid Earth applications by lowering the Earthquake detection threshold from magnitude 8.8 to magnitude 7.4 with spatial resolution increased to 333 km.

Because Antarctic surface melt is mostly driven by local processes, its simulation necessitates high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs). However, the current horizontal resolution of RCMs (≈25–30 km) is inadequate for capturing small-scale melt processes. To address this limitation, we present SUPREME (SUPer-REsolution-based Melt Estimation over Antarctica), a deep learning method to downscale surface melt to 5.5 km resolution using a physically-informed super-resolution model. The physical information integrated into the model originates from observations tied to surface melt, specifically remote sensing-derived albedo and elevation. These remote sensing data, in addition to a Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO) run at 27 km resolution, account for the diverse drivers of surface melt across Antarctica, facilitating effective generalization beyond the training region of the Antarctic Peninsula. A comparison of SUPREME with a dynamically downscaled RACMO run at 5.5 km over the Antarctic Peninsula shows high accuracy, with average yearly RMSE and bias of 5.5 mm w.e. yr⁻¹ and 4.5 mm w.e. yr⁻¹, respectively. Validation at five automatic weather stations reveals SUPREME's marked improvement with substantially lower average RMSE (81 mm w.e.) compared to RACMO 27 km (129 mm w.e.). Beyond the training region, SUPREME aligns more closely with remote sensing products associated with surface melt than super-resolution models lacking physical constraints. While further validation of SUPREME is needed, our study highlights the potential of super-resolution techniques with physical constraints for high-resolution surface melt monitoring in Antarctica, providing insights into the impacts of localized melting on processes affecting ice shelf integrity such as hydrofracturing.

The TriMetrogon Aerial (TMA) archive is an archive of historical images of Antarctica taken by the US Navy between 1940 and 2000 with analogue cameras. The analysis of such historic data can give a view of Antarctica's glaciers predating modern satellite imagery and provide unique insights into the long-term impact of changing climate conditions with essential validation data for climate modelling. However, the lack of semantic information for these images presents a challenge for large-scale computer-driven analysis. Such information can be added to the data using semantic segmentation, but traditional algorithms fail on these scanned historical grayscale images, due to varying image quality, lack of colour information and artefacts in the images. To address this, we present a deep-learning-based U-net workflow. Our approach includes creating training data by pre-processing and labelling the raw images. Furthermore, different versions of the U-net are trained to optimize its hyperparameters and augmentation methods. With the optimal hyper-parameters and augmentation methods, a final model has been trained for a use-case to segment 118 images covering Adelaide Island. We tested our approach by segmenting challenging historical images using a U-net model with just 80 training images, achieving an accuracy of 73% for 20 validation images. While no test data is available for our use case, a visual examination of the segmented images shows that our method performs effectively. The comparison of the hyper-parameters and augmentation methods provides directions for training other U-net-based models so that the presented workflow can be used to segment other archives with historical imagery. Additionally, the labelled training data and the segmented images of the test are publicly available at https://github.com/fdahle/antarctic_segmentation.