Patagonian glaciers have been rapidly losing mass in the last two decades, but the driving processes remain poorly known. Here we use two state-of-the-art regional climate models to reconstruct long-term (1940-2023) glacier surface mass balance (SMB), i.e., the difference between precipitation accumulation, surface runoff and sublimation, at about 5 km spatial resolution, further statistically downscaled to 500 m. High-resolution SMB agrees well with in-situ observations and, combined with solid ice discharge estimates, captures recent GRACE/GRACE-FO satellite mass change. Glacier mass loss coincides with a long-term SMB decline (−0.35 Gt yr⁻²), primarily driven by enhanced surface runoff (+0.47 Gt yr⁻²) and steady precipitation. We link these trends to a poleward shift of the subtropical highs favouring warm northwesterly air advections towards Patagonia (+0.14°C dec⁻¹ at 850 hPa). Since the 1940s, Patagonian glaciers have lost 1350 ± 449 Gt of ice, equivalent to 3.7 ± 1.2 mm of global mean sea-level rise.

Despite in-situ observations of perennial firn aquifers (PFAs) at specific locations of the Antarctic ice sheet, a comprehensive continent-wide mapping of PFA distribution is currently lacking. We present an estimate of their distribution across Antarctica in the form of a probability assessment using a Monte Carlo technique. Our approach involves a novel methodology that combines observations from Sentinel-1 and Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) with output from a regional climate model. To evaluate our method, we conduct an extensive comparison with Operation Ice Bridge observations from the Greenland Ice Sheet. Application to Antarctica reveals high PFA probabilities in the Antarctic Peninsula (AP), particularly along its northern, northwestern, and western coastlines, as well as on the Wilkins, Müller, and George VI ice shelves. Outside the AP, PFA probability is low, except for some locations with marginally higher probabilities, such as on the Abbot, Totten, and Shackleton ice shelves.

Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) mass loss is predominantly driven by increased solid ice discharge, but its variability is governed by surface processes. Snowfall fluctuations control the surface mass balance (SMB) of the grounded AIS, while meltwater ponding can trigger ice shelf collapse potentially accelerating discharge. Surface processes are essential to quantify AIS mass change, but remain poorly represented in climate models typically running at 25-100 km resolution. Here we present SMB and surface melt products statistically downscaled to 2 km resolution for the contemporary climate (1979-2021) and low, moderate and high-end warming scenarios until 2100. We show that statistical downscaling modestly enhances contemporary SMB (3%), which is sufficient to reconcile modelled and satellite mass change. Furthermore, melt strongly increases (46%), notably near the grounding line, in better agreement with in-situ and satellite records. The melt increase persists by 2100 in all warming scenarios, revealing higher surface melt rates than previously estimated.

Icelandic glaciers have been losing mass since the Little Ice Age in the mid-to-late 1800s, with higher mass loss rates in the early 21st century, followed by a slowdown since 2011. As of yet, it remains unclear whether this mass loss slowdown will persist in the future. By reconstructing the contemporary (1958–2019) surface mass balance of Icelandic glaciers, we show that the post-2011 mass loss slowdown coincides with the development of the Blue Blob, an area of regional cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean to the south of Greenland. This regional cooling signal mitigates atmospheric warming in Iceland since 2011, in turn decreasing glacier mass loss through reduced meltwater runoff. In a future high-end warming scenario, North Atlantic cooling is projected to mitigate mass loss of Icelandic glaciers until the mid-2050s. High mass loss rates resume thereafter as the regional cooling signal weakens.

Icelandic glaciers have been losing mass since the Little Ice Age in the mid-to-late 1800s, with higher mass loss rates in the early 21st century, followed by a slowdown since 2011. As of yet, it remains unclear whether this mass loss slowdown will persist in the future. By reconstructing the contemporary (1958–2019) surface mass balance of Icelandic glaciers, we show that the post-2011 mass loss slowdown coincides with the development of the Blue Blob, an area of regional cooling in the North Atlantic Ocean to the south of Greenland. This regional cooling signal mitigates atmospheric warming in Iceland since 2011, in turn decreasing glacier mass loss through reduced meltwater runoff. In a future high-end warming scenario, North Atlantic cooling is projected to mitigate mass loss of Icelandic glaciers until the mid-2050s. High mass loss rates resume thereafter as the regional cooling signal weakens.

Ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet is one of the largest sources of contemporary sea-level rise (SLR). While process-based models place timescales on Greenland’s deglaciation, their confidence is obscured by model shortcomings including imprecise atmospheric and oceanic couplings. Here, we present a complementary approach resolving ice sheet disequilibrium with climate constrained by satellite-derived bare-ice extent, tidewater sector ice flow discharge and surface mass balance data. We find that Greenland ice imbalance with the recent (2000–2019) climate commits at least 274 ± 68 mm SLR from 59 ± 15 × 10³ km² ice retreat, equivalent to 3.3 ± 0.9% volume loss, regardless of twenty-first-century climate pathways. This is a result of increasing mass turnover from precipitation, ice flow discharge and meltwater run-off. The high-melt year of 2012 applied in perpetuity yields an ice loss commitment of 782 ± 135 mm SLR, serving as an ominous prognosis for Greenland’s trajectory through a twenty-first century of warming.

Compared to other Arctic ice masses, Svalbard glaciers are low-elevated with flat interior accumulation areas, resulting in a marked peak in their current hypsometry (area-elevation distribution) at ~450 m above sea level. Since summer melt consistently exceeds winter snowfall, these low-lying glaciers can only survive by refreezing a considerable fraction of surface melt and rain in the porous firn layer covering their accumulation zones. We use a high-resolution climate model to show that modest atmospheric warming in the mid-1980s forced the firn zone to retreat upward by ~100 m to coincide with the hypsometry peak. This led to a rapid areal reduction of firn cover available for refreezing, and strongly increased runoff from dark, bare ice areas, amplifying mass loss from all elevations. As the firn line fluctuates around the hypsometry peak in the current climate, Svalbard glaciers will continue to lose mass and show high sensitivity to temperature perturbations.

Since the early 1990s, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate, primarily due to enhanced meltwater runoff following atmospheric warming. Here, we show that a pronounced latitudinal contrast exists in the GrIS response to recent warming. The ablation area in north Greenland expanded by 46%, almost twice as much as in the south (+25%), significantly increasing the relative contribution of the north to total GrIS mass loss. This latitudinal contrast originates from a different response to the recent change in large-scale Arctic summertime atmospheric circulation, promoting southwesterly advection of warm air toward the GrIS. In the southwest, persistent high atmospheric pressure reduced cloudiness, increasing runoff through enhanced absorption of solar radiation; in contrast, increased early-summer cloudiness in north Greenland enhanced atmospheric warming through decreased longwave heat loss. This triggered a rapid snowline retreat, causing early bare ice exposure, amplifying northern runoff.

The Antarctic Ice Sheet is an important indicator of climate change and driver of sea-level rise. Here we combine satellite observations of its changing volume, flow and gravitational attraction with modelling of its surface mass balance to show that it lost 2,720 ± 1,390 billion tonnes of ice between 1992 and 2017, which corresponds to an increase in mean sea level of 7.6 ± 3.9 millimetres (errors are one standard deviation). Over this period, ocean-driven melting has caused rates of ice loss from West Antarctica to increase from 53 ± 29 billion to 159 ± 26 billion tonnes per year; ice-shelf collapse has increased the rate of ice loss from the Antarctic Peninsula from 7 ± 13 billion to 33 ± 16 billion tonnes per year. We find large variations in and among model estimates of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment for East Antarctica, with its average rate of mass gain over the period 1992-2017 (5 ± 46 billion tonnes per year) being the least certain.

We evaluate modelled Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) near-surface climate, surface mass balance (SMB) and surface energy balance (SEB) from the updated polar version of the regional atmospheric climate model, RACMO2 (1979-2016). The updated model, referred to as RACMO2.3p2, incorporates upper-air relaxation, a revised topography, tuned parameters in the cloud scheme to generate more precipitation towards the AIS interior and modified snow properties reducing drifting snow sublimation and increasing surface snowmelt.

Comparisons of RACMO2 model output with several independent observational data show that the existing biases in AIS temperature, radiative fluxes and SMB components are further reduced with respect to the previous model version. The model-integrated annual average SMB for the ice sheet including ice shelves (minus the Antarctic Peninsula, AP) now amounts to 2229ĝ€Gtĝ€yĝ'1, with an interannual variability of 109ĝ€Gtĝ€yĝ'1. The largest improvement is found in modelled surface snowmelt, which now compares well with satellite and weather station observations. For the high-resolution ( ĝ1/4 ĝ€5.5ĝ€km) AP simulation, results remain comparable to earlier studies.

The updated model provides a new, high-resolution data set of the contemporary near-surface climate and SMB of the AIS; this model version will be used for future climate scenario projections in a forthcoming study.