Title
Modelling the combined impact of sea level rise, land subsidence, and tropical cyclones in compound flooding of coastal cities
Author
Wu, Guofeng (East China Normal University)
Liu, Qing (East China Normal University)
Xu, H. (TU Delft Hydraulic Structures and Flood Risk; East China Normal University)
Wang, Jun (East China Normal University)
Date
2024
Abstract
Low-lying coastal areas are threatened worldwide by compound flooding effects, including sea-level rise (SLR), frequent tropical cyclones (TCs), and accelerated land subsidence (LS). Compound flooding results in a negative effect, creating challenges for decision-making and coastal management for sustainable urban development. To comprehend the precise consequences and the combined effect of LS and SLR on coastal cities and to inform management scientifically, we initially chose historical TCs (TC6311 and TC1415) that resulted in exceptionally high surges and significant losses as reference scenarios for simulating potential compound events. We then utilized a hydrodynamic model, which combines TCs, LS, and SLR, to simulate the combined impact of flood hazards. Our findings indicated that the highest subsidence rate exceeds −20 mm/yr, the cumulative subsidence reaches −119.09 mm and 68.44% of the land is experiencing subsidence from 2015 to 2021. When comparing flood scenarios with and without the influence of SLR, the most severely affected by LS is projected to become submerged and completely inundated by 2100. We found that the combined impact of SLR and LS significantly amplified flood inundation and SLR is the primary amplification factor of flooding, projected to account for 46.2% by 2100. The framework established in this study facilitates the quantitative assessment of the interactions among multi-driver factors of compound flooding, thereby serving as a supplementary and guiding tool for future risk management.
Subject
Climate change
Compound flooding
Hydrodynamic modeling
PS-InSAR
Relative sea level rise
To reference this document use:
http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:410ebd8d-f8d9-4492-b767-e7a5aea833cd
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107107
Embargo date
2024-10-01
ISSN
0964-5691
Source
Ocean & Coastal Management, 252
Bibliographical note
Green Open Access added to TU Delft Institutional Repository ‘You share, we take care!’ – Taverne project https://www.openaccess.nl/en/you-share-we-take-care Otherwise as indicated in the copyright section: the publisher is the copyright holder of this work and the author uses the Dutch legislation to make this work public.
Part of collection
Institutional Repository
Document type
journal article
Rights
© 2024 Guofeng Wu, Qing Liu, H. Xu, Jun Wang