Comparing various measures to prevent covid-19 spread in offices through simulation modelling

Comparing various measures to prevent covid-19 spread in offices through simulation modelling

Deijkers, Emma (TU Delft Technology, Policy and Management)

Huang, Yilin (mentor)
van Daalen, C. (graduation committee)
Duives, D.C. (graduation committee)

Delft University of Technology

Complex Systems Engineering and Management (CoSEM)

2022-09-20

COVID-19 has had a great impact worldwide. One of its many effects was that offices had to be closed, which negatively affects the economy and people’s mental health. It is important that a safe way to keep offices open is found. Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) are an important way to do this. However, to pick the right NPIs for one’s office, knowledge is needed of the effects of the different NPIs within the given context. As of now, there are not many models that can provide a detailed estimation of COVID-19 spread and quantify the impact of NPIs in office spaces.
Therefore the existing model of the PedestrianDynamics - Virus Spread (PeDViS) of Duives et al. (2022) is chosen as the base model to be extended into a model that allows the comparison of the effects of NPIs in an office space.
The NPIs of which the effects are explored in this research are:
• All employees wear a mask while walking
• Increasing the rate of cleaning
• Increasing the ventilation rate from standard rate to the rate advised by government officials
• Allowing only 50 % of the employees to come into the office
• Allowing a maximum number of people in the meeting rooms, equal to 50 % of the capacity of the meeting rooms

A sensitivity analysis has been performed to learn more about the impact of some of the variables related to the meetings held in the office. Both the size and frequency of meetings were found to have some influence on the number of infections.
Next, policy analysis has been performed to learn more about the effectiveness of the NPIs, both individually and combined into policies. This led to conclusions on how large and consistent the effect of each of the NPIs was in reducing the number of infections in office contexts. The results also provided information on under what circumstances NPI could best be implemented and what NPI policies are recommended to be implemented to adhere to different levels of safety. Also, various limitations of this research were identified and recommendations for future work were given for part of them. The most important recommendations for future work are:
• Extending the model to include shared workspaces and the activity of having lunch.
•Testing the impact of more aspects relating to activity scheduling
•Gather data on people’s behaviour when the number of days they can come to the office is limited, to learn more about the inconsistent effect of this NPI.
•Test the impact of the NPIs in a context in which the initial infection risk is low.

COVID-19
virus-transmission
risk assessment
Simulation modelling
Offices
pedestrian modelling

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:6f11dc81-0260-4dd4-bb98-cd74275a3c42

Student theses

master thesis

© 2022 Emma Deijkers