Using agent-based models to generate transformation knowledge for the German energiewende-potentials and challenges derived from four case studies

Using agent-based models to generate transformation knowledge for the German energiewende-potentials and challenges derived from four case studies

Holtz, Georg (Wuppertal institute for Climate, Environment, and Energy)
Schnülle, Christian (University of Bremen)
Yadack, Malcolm (Stuttgart University of Applied Sciences; University of Hohenheim)
Friege, J.M. (TU Delft Energy and Industry)
Jensen, T. (TU Delft Energy and Industry)
Thier, Pablo (University of Bremen)
Viebahn, Peter (Wuppertal institute for Climate, Environment, and Energy)
Chappin, E.J.L. (TU Delft Energy and Industry; Wuppertal institute for Climate, Environment, and Energy)

2020

The German Energiewende is a deliberate transformation of an established industrial economy towards a nearly CO2-free energy system accompanied by a phase out of nuclear energy. Its governance requires knowledge on how to steer the transition from the existing status quo to the target situation (transformation knowledge). The energy system is, however, a complex socio-technical system whose dynamics are influenced by behavioural and institutional aspects, which are badly represented by the dominant techno-economic scenario studies. In this paper, we therefore investigate and identify characteristics of model studies that make agent-based modelling supportive for the generation of transformation knowledge for the Energiewende. This is done by reflecting on the experiences gained from four different applications of agent-based models. In particular, we analyse whether the studies have improved our understanding of policies’ impacts on the energy system, whether the knowledge derived is useful for practitioners, how valid understanding derived by the studies is, and whether the insights can be used beyond the initial case-studies. We conclude that agent-based modelling has a high potential to generate transformation knowledge, but that the design of projects in which the models are developed and used is of major importance to reap this potential. Well-informed and goal-oriented stakeholder involvement and a strong collaboration between data collection and model development are crucial.

Agent-based model
Energiewende
Energy
Feedback products
Insulation
Power-to-fuels
Retail market
Transformation knowledge
Transition

http://resolver.tudelft.nl/uuid:737c69bc-0ec6-41e7-a934-73472ff3ebe2

https://doi.org/10.3390/en13226133

1996-1073

Energies, 13 (22)

Institutional Repository

journal article

© 2020 Georg Holtz, Christian Schnülle, Malcolm Yadack, J.M. Friege, T. Jensen, Pablo Thier, Peter Viebahn, E.J.L. Chappin