A prediction model for the accumulation of land to river debris at a downstream river section

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Abstract

The accumulation of natural and persistent anthropogenic debris in particular, within aquatic ecosystems, brings along a myriad of ramifications. By reducing these debris, damage to nautical vessels and harm to marine life can be mitigated. Rivers are an important pathway of debris towards coastal harbors, ports and marine ecosystems. To contribute to a more effective proactive removal of these debris from rivers, a prediction model can be developed, which can identify a temporal distribution of accumulation. This paper proposes a new prediction model by identifying a comprehensive set of predictors, through which land to river inputs can be predicted. A case study is used to evaluate the performance of several model versions, differing in complexity and predictors.