AI for crisis decisions

Increasingly, our cities are confronted with crises. Fuelled by climate change and a loss of biodiversity, increasing inequalities and fragmentation, challenges range from social unrest and outbursts of violence to heatwaves, torrential rainfall, or epidemics. As crises require rapid interventions that overwhelm human decision-making capacity...

Forecasting elections based on the aggregation of election polls

<br/>Elections polls have been known to exist since 1824 [14], to fulfill the objective of what is happening and may happen. In this thesis it is investigated what the performance of election polls is and if the aggregation of polls give a better forecast than the polls themselves. The data is used of Spain during years 2012 until 2017 and The...

Framing and tracing human-centered design teams' method selection: an examination of decision-making strategies

Designers’ choices of methods are well known to shape project outcomes. However, questions remain about why design teams select particular methods and how teams’ decision-making strategies are influenced by project- and process-based factors. In this mixed-methods study, we analyze novice design teams’ decision-making strategies underlying 297...

A formal framework for reasoning about opportunistic propensity in multi-agent systems

Opportunism is an intentional behavior that takes advantage of knowledge asymmetry and results in promoting agents’ own value and demoting others’ value. It is important to eliminate such selfish behavior in multi-agent systems, as it has undesirable results for the participating agents. In order for monitoring and eliminating mechanisms to...

A model of the human decision maker observing a dynamic system

In this report a model of the human observer and decision maker is described. A submodel of the human observer is formulated in linear estimation theoretical terms including the perception of the displayed information of a linear process and the central information processing stage. The subsequent decision process is described in terms of...