Performance analysis of initial stabling plans of railway yards subjected to demand variations

The planning of railway operations is a very complex process, in which timetables and other logistical plans need to be both reliable and robust to effectively prevent and cope with disturbances. However, research in the robustness of initial stabling plans, designed in an earlier planning phase, during the following planning phases, has been...

Rehearsing the future: Soft-launching early-stage consumer hardware to mitigate uncertainty in the NPD process.

A company’s ability to innovate is widely recognized as the core driver of growth, performance and valuation. However, innovation is an expensive and risky endeavor and current method and management tools have been widely criticized. The software industry has radically changed over the last decade. Approaches, such as soft- launching early-stage...

Dealing with uncertainty in the challenge of the energy transition

Building upon a conceptual framework of elements that play a role in the management of uncertainties, an empirical study was performed to learn about the uncertainties in the energy transition. For this, interviews were held and an expert panel was organized. <br/><br/>It was found that uncertainty is an unavoidable element of project management...

Safety through Machine Learning Applications: A Safety Case Analysis

Machine learning applications are increasingly being implemented in socio-technical safety-critical systems, but the safety of these applications is not well understood. This thesis used a mixed-method design and applied four methods to explore the field of machine learning and safety. With the results of these four methods, a framework was...

External uncertainty as a driver of structural change in real estate decision-factors: An explorative study

Research on the influence of political and economic uncertainty on the decision-factors for accommodation decision-making in corporate real estate management. Research showed that economic uncertainty, and not political uncertainty, did influence the decision criteria during the last decade. A shift can be seen from practical, costs and...

Trench Siltation near the ETM of a Well-mixed Estuary

To exploit its socio-economic functions, engineering measures are regularly applied in estuaries. Estuaries are, however, known to be very complex systems. Stemming from this complexity is the generation of a so-called estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM), which poses great siltation problems to the engineering measures. An engineering measure,...

Quality assessment of a graph-based approach for a multi-methods determination of geotechnical model parameters

The determination of geotechnical parameters from in-situ tests heavily relies on the use of empirical correlations relating field measurements to soil properties. A large number of these correlations can be found across the literature, each of them yielding a different outcome for the parameter value. This results in a high variability of the...

Requirements for Flash Flood Hydrometeorological Monitoring

A report describing a method for uncertainty and sensitvity analysis that can be applied within the context of flood risk analysis

Inexact reasoning in expert systems: An integrating overview

In this report several methods for modeling uncertainty in expert systems are discussed. An overview is given of methods used in various existing expert systems and an attempt is made to put these methods into their proper perspective.

uncertainty and sensitvity analysis method for flood risk analysis

A report describing a method for uncertainty and sensitvity analysis that can be applied within the context of flood risk analysis

Analysis and influence of uncertainties on the reliability of flood defence systems

Uncertainties are introduced in probabilistic risk analysis when we deal with parameters that are not deterministic (exactly known) but that are unknown instead, hence uncertain. This report describes how uncertainties influence the reliability of flood defence systems. The purpose of the study is to identify all uncertainties that influence the...

Development of framework for the influence and impact of uncertainty

Task 20 has contributed to the methods and application of uncertainty analysis by targeting novel areas of uncertainty analysis and decision support. The research fell into four sub-tasks: 1) Development of an overall framework for uncertainty analysis in flood risk management decisions. 2) Development of new methods to deal with the uncertainty...

A System Dynamics Model of Standards Competition

Standards competition is a complicated process influenced by a large number of factors and mechanisms. This article develops a simulation model that draws on current theory of standards competition dynamics and represents the interplay of strategic factors that firms can use to gain a competitive advantage. The model is used to reproduce four...

Addressing the challenges of climate change risks and adaptation in coastal areas: A review

Climate change is and will continue altering the world's coasts, which are the most densely populated and economically active areas on earth and home for highly valuable ecosystems. While there is considerable relevant research, in the authors' experience this problem remains challenging for coastal engineering. This paper reviews important...

Recent insights on uncertainties present in integrated catchment water quality modelling

This paper aims to stimulate discussion based on the experiences derived from the QUICS project (Quantifying Uncertainty in Integrated Catchment Studies). First it briefly discusses the current state of knowledge on uncertainties in sub-models of integrated catchment models and the existing frameworks for analysing uncertainty. Furthermore, it...

Mortality Attributable to Long-Term Exposure to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter: Insights from the Epidemiologic Evidence for Understudied Locations

Epidemiologic cohort studies have consistently demonstrated that long-term exposure to ambient fine particles (PM_2.5) is associated with mortality. Nevertheless, extrapolating results to understudied locations may involve considerable uncertainty. To explore this issue, this review discusses the evidence for (i) the associated risk...

To be or not to be. What? Is the question!: Research Methods TU Delft 2015-2016

Master Research Paper

Inferring rare events: The role of the length of observations

Extreme value analyses (EVA) are often used to determine the frequency of extreme events. The length of the available observations is an important aspect when performing EVA. It is generally known that more available data results in better estimates with less uncertainties. The main objective of this research report was to assess what the...