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Brenner, T. (author), Werker, C. (author)When advising policy we face the fundamental problem that economic processes are connected with uncertainty and thus policy can err. In this paper we show how the use of simulation models can reduce policy errors. We suggest that policy is best based on socalled abductive simulation models, which help to better understand how policy measures can...journal article 2009
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Ruijven, B. (author), Van der Sluijs, J.P. (author), Van Vuuren, D.P. (author), Janssen, P. (author), Heuberger, P.S.C. (author), De Vries, B. (author)Uncertainties in energy demand modelling originate from both limited understanding of the real-world system and a lack of data for model development, calibration and validation. These uncertainties allow for the development of different models, but also leave room for different calibrations of a single model. Here, an automated model calibration...journal article 2009
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Jacobs, J.F. (author), Van de Poel, I. (author), Osseweijer, P. (author)The risks of novel technologies, such as nano(bio)technology cannot be fully assessed due to the existing uncertainties surrounding their introduction into society. Consequently, the introduction of innovative technologies can be conceptualised as a societal experiment, which is a helpful approach to evaluate moral acceptability. This approach...journal article 2010
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Greeven, Sebastiaan (author), Kraan, O.D.E. (author), Chappin, E.J.L. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)Developing model-based narratives of society’s response to climate change is challenged by two factors. First, society’s response to possible future climate change is subject to many uncertainties. Second, we argue that society’s mitigation action emerge out of the actions and interactions of the many actors in society. Together, these two...journal article 2016
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Perko, Z. (author), van der Voort, S.R. (author), Van De Water, Steven (author), Hartman, C.M.H. (author), Hoogeman, M.S. (author), Lathouwers, D. (author)The highly conformal planned dose distribution achievable in intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) can severely be compromised by uncertainties in patient setup and proton range. While several robust optimization approaches have been presented to address this issue, appropriate methods to accurately estimate the robustness of treatment...journal article 2016
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van Essen, G. M. (author), Kahrobaei, S.S. (author), van Oeveren, H. (author), van den Hof, P.M.J. (author), Jansen, J.D. (author)We present a method to determine lower and upper bounds to the predicted production or any other economic objective from history-matched reservoir models. The method consists of two steps: 1) performing a traditional computer-assisted history match of a reservoir model with the objective to minimize the mismatch between predicted and observed...journal article 2016
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van Maren, D.S. (author), Cronin, Katherine (author)Estuarine suspended sediment transport models are typically calibrated against suspended sediment concentration data. These data typically cover a limited range of the actual suspended sediment concentration dynamics, constrained in either time or space. As a result of these data limitations, the available data can be reproduced with complex...journal article 2016
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Robaey, Z.H. (author), Spruit, S. (author), van de Poel, I.R. (author)The Safe-by-Design approach in synthetic biology holds the promise of designing the building blocks of life in an organism guided by the value of safety. This paves a new way for using biotechnologies safely. However, the Safe-by-Design approach moves the bulk of the responsibility for safety to the actors in the research and development...journal article 2017
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van de Poel, I.R. (author), Robaey, Z.H. (author)Safe-by-design (SbD) aims at addressing safety issues already during the R&D and design phases of new technologies. SbD has increasingly become popular in the last few years for addressing the risks of emerging technologies like nanotechnology and synthetic biology. We ask to what extent SbD approaches can deal with uncertainty, in...journal article 2017
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Roeser, S. (author)Climate change is a pressing phenomenon with huge potential ethical, legal and social policy implications. Climate change gives rise to intricate moral and policy issues as it involves contested science, uncertainty and risk. In order to come to scientifically and morally justified, as well as feasible, policies, targeting climate change...journal article 2017
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Bellos, Vasilis (author), Kourtis, Ioannis M. (author), Moreno Rodenas, A. (author), Tsihrintzis, Vassilios A. (author)A methodology is presented which can be used in the evaluation of parametric uncertainty in urban flooding simulation. Due to the fact that such simulations are time consuming, the following methodology is proposed: (a) simplification of the description of the physical process; (b) derivation of a training data set; (c) development of a data...journal article 2017
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Comes, M. (author), Bergtora Sandvik, Kristin (author), van de Walle, B.A. (author)Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze how far technology and information enable, facilitate or support the planning and implementation decisions in humanitarian vaccine cold chains for vaccination campaigns. The authors specifically focus on three emerging technologies that have the potential to create more flexible conditions in...journal article 2018
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Meneguzzi, Felipe (author), Magnaguagno, Mauricio C. (author), Singh, Munindar P. (author), Telang, Pankaj R. (author), Yorke-Smith, N. (author)This article addresses the challenge of planning coordinated activities for a set of autonomous agents, who coordinate according to social commitments among themselves. We develop a multi-agent plan in the form of a commitment protocol that allows the agents to coordinate in a flexible manner, retaining their autonomy in terms of the goals...journal article 2018
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Raso, L. (author), Weijs, S. V. (author), Werner, M. (author)Uncertainty reduces reliability and performance of water system operations. A decision-maker can take action, accepting the present uncertainty and facing its risks, or reduce uncertainty by first obtaining additional information. Information, however, comes at a cost. The decision-maker must therefore efficiently use his/her resources,...journal article 2018
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Prendergast, L.J. (author), Reale, C. (author), Gavin, Kenneth (author)The trend for development in the offshore wind sector is towards larger turbines in deeper water. This results in higher wind and wave loads on these dynamically sensitive structures. Monopiles are the preferred foundation solution for offshore wind structures and have a typical expected design life of 20 years. These foundations have strict...journal article 2018
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Zhang, Bingbing (author), Hu, Y. (author), Wang, Hongying (author), Zhuang, Zhaowen (author)Underwater source localization problems are complicated and challenging: a) the sound propagation speed is often unknown and the unpredictable ocean current might lead to the uncertainties of sensor parameters (i.e. position and velocity); b) the underwater acoustic signal travels much slower than the radio one in terrestrial environments,...journal article 2018
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Fan, Songli (author), Ai, Qian (author), Piao, L. (author)Battery energy storage (BES) and demand response (DR) are considered to be promising technologies to cope with the uncertainty of renewable energy sources (RES) and the load in the microgrid (MG). Considering the distinct prediction accuracies of the RES and load at different timescales, it is essential to incorporate the multi-timescale...journal article 2018
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van Dorsser, Cornelis (author), Walker, W.E. (author), Taneja, P. (author), Marchau, Vincent A.W.J. (author)Policymakers need to make policies for unknown and uncertain futures. Researchers in the futures field have a great deal to contribute to the policymaking process. But, futures research is often neglected as an element of policymaking. The aim of this paper is to improve the link between futures research and policymaking. More specifically,...journal article 2018
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Chen, G. (author), Davis, D.J. (author), Krause, Markus (author), Aivaloglou, E.A. (author), Hauff, C. (author), Houben, G.J.P.M. (author)Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) aim to educate the world. More often than not, however, MOOCs fall short of this goal — a majority of learners are already highly educated (with a Bachelor degree or more) and come from specific parts of the (developed) world. Learners from developing countries without a higher degree are underrepresented,...journal article 2018
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Gavin, Kenneth (author), Prendergast, L.J. (author), Stipanovič, Irina (author), Škarič−palič, Sandra (author)There have been significant developments in the area of vibration-based bridge scour monitoring in recent years. Traditional scour monitoring using either visual assessment or diving inspections are now recognised to be very unreliable and highly subjective. There has been a concerted effort to move towards reliable systems capable of either...journal article 2018