An Integrated Framework for Incorporating Climate Risk into Urban Land-Use Change Modeling

Cities are complex socio-technical systems (STSs) under tremendous stress due to climate change. To incorporate resilience into urban plans and move towards evidence-based long-term decision-making, we must unravel complex land-use dynamics and the effect of climate uncertainties on cities. Currently, land-use dynamics are explored through...

The emergence of climate change mitigation action by society: An agent-based scenario discovery study

Developing model-based narratives of society’s response to climate change is challenged by two factors. First, society’s response to possible future climate change is subject to many uncertainties. Second, we argue that society’s mitigation action emerge out of the actions and interactions of the many actors in society. Together, these two...

Exploratory modeling: A tool for communicating the future: A case study of valuing flexibility in flood defense strategies

Decision-making for flood defense while facing a considerable change in driving forces demands other methods than the traditional approach of forecasting and optimal policy selection. Exploratory modeling can be a candidate for helping adaptive policymaking to deal with the uncertainties that confront decision-makers. In adaptive policymaking...