Characterization of Precipitation through Copulas and Expert Judgement for Risk Assessment of Infrastructure

In this paper two methodologies are investigated that contribute to better assessment of risks related to extreme rainfall events. Firstly, one-parameter bivariate copulas are used to analyze rain gauge data in the Netherlands. Out of three models considered, the Gumbel copula, which indicates upper tail dependence, represents the data most...

A Two-Dimension Dynamic Bayesian Network for Large-Scale Degradation Modeling with an Application to a Bridges Network

Modeling the stochastic evolution of a largescale fleet or network generally proves to be challenging. This difficulty may be compounded through complex relationships between various assets in the network. Although a great number of probabilistic graph-based models (e.g., Bayesian networks) have been developed recently to describe the behavior...

Expert judgment in life-cycle degradation and maintenance modelling for steel bridges

Markov-based models for predicting deterioration for civil infrastructures are widely recognized as suitable tools addressing this mechanism. The objective of this paper is to provide insights regarding a network of orthotropic steel bridges in terms of degradation. Consequently, a model combining a dynamic Bayesian network and a Markov chain is...

Value of monitoring in asset management: A social cost-benefit analysis approach