Further development of a method to calculate frequencies of loss of control including their uncertainty

An integrated model for risk in a real-time environment for the hydrocarbon industry based on the CATS model for commercial aviation safety has been further developed. The approach described in earlier papers required Bayesian Belief Nets (BBN) to be developed for each process unit separately. A much more efficient method for developing the...

Modelling human and organizational behaviour in a high-risk operation

A core part of the risk modelling program for the Oil and Gas industry being carried out at Delft University of Technology is the influence of humans, within an organisation, as well as the technical factors. Specific attention is given to the incentive structure of operators, staff and managers, which in previous models had only been indicated...

Modelling risk in high hazard operations: Integrating technical, organisational and cultural factors

Recent disasters in high hazard industries such as Oil and Gas Exploration (The Deepwater Horizon) and Petrochemical production (Texas City) have been found to have causes that range from direct technical failures through organizational shortcomings right up to weak regulation and inappropriate company cultures. Risk models have generally...

Modeling contractor and company employee behavior in high hazard operation

The recent blow-out and subsequent environmental disaster in the Gulf of Mexico have highlighted a number of serious problems in scientific thinking about safety. Risk models have generally concentrated on technical failures, which are easier to model and for which there are more concrete data. However, many primary cause of the disasters, such...

Multi-criteria optimization framework for road infrastructures under different scenario of climate change

Safety Management and Risk Modelling in Aviation: The challenge of quantifying management influences

Aviation accidents result from a combination of many different causal factors ( human errors, technical failures, environmental and organisational influences). Increasing interest over the past two decades in causal modelling of organisational factors has been motivated by the desire to understand these fundamental causes and their influences in...

SURVEILLE Deliverable 3.4: Design a research methodology for assessing the effectiveness of selected surveillance systems in delivering improved security

SURVEILLE Deliverable 2.6: Matrix of surveillance technologies

Causal Model for Air Transport Safety: Final report