document

Planning for wastewater infrastructure adaptation under deep uncertainty

Allison, A. E.F. (author), Lawrence, J. H. (author), Stephens, S. A. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Singh, S. K. (author), Blackett, P. (author), Stroombergen, A. (author)

Infrastructure in low-lying coastal areas faces challenges from climate change, sea level rise, and the impact of compound hazards. Dynamic adaptive pathways planning (DAPP) is increasingly being applied as a way of planning under deep uncertainty. Stress testing for robustness is an integral part of DAPP which provides decision-makers with...

journal article 2024

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Exploring potential futures: Evaluating the influence of deep uncertainties in urban planning through scenario planning: A case study in Rome, Italy

Mannucci, Simona (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Morganti, Michele (author), Ferrero, Marco (author)

Cities play a critical role in developing adaptable strategies to address the challenges posed by climate change. However, the inherent complexity of urban environments and their uncertain future conditions necessitate exploring innovative approaches and tools to assist the current planning practices. This paper presents a workflow rooted in...

journal article 2023

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Flexibility for intergenerational justice in climate resilience decision-making: an application on sea-level rise in the Netherlands

Teodoro Morales, J.D. (author), Doorn, N. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Comes, M. (author)

To adapt to a changing climate, decision-makers design, evaluate, and implement measures that have an implication of justice on citizens in the present and well into the future. Decision-makers are often required to make decisions without certainty of the consequences and understanding their effects on intergenerational justice. Thus, managing...

journal article 2022

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Evidence of regional sea-level rise acceleration for the North Sea

Steffelbauer, D.B. (author), Riva, R.E.M. (author), Timmermans, Jos (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Bakker, M. (author)

Global mean sea-level rise (SLR) has accelerated since 1900 from less than 2 mm yr-1 during most of the century to more than 3 mm yr-1 since 1993. Decision-makers in coastal countries, however, require information on SLR at the regional scale, where detection of an acceleration in SLR is difficult, because the long-term sea-level signal is...

journal article 2022

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Evaluating the distributional fairness of alternative adaptation policies: a case study in Vietnam’s upper Mekong Delta

Jafino, B.A. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Klijn, F. (author)

To support equitable adaptation planning, quantitative assessments should consider the fairness of the distribution of outcomes to different people. What constitutes a fair distribution, however, is a normative question. In this study, we explore the use of different moral principles drawn from theories of distributive justice to evaluate...

journal article 2022

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Enabling assessment of distributive justice through models for climate change planning: A review of recent advances and a research agenda

Jafino, B.A. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Taebi, B. (author)

Models for supporting climate adaptation and mitigation planning, mostly in the form of Integrated Assessment Models, are poorly equipped for aiding questions related to fairness of adaptation and mitigation strategies, because they often disregard distributional outcomes. When evaluating policies using such models, the costs and benefits are...

review 2021

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A novel concurrent approach for multiclass scenario discovery using Multivariate Regression Trees: Exploring spatial inequality patterns in the Vietnam Mekong Delta under uncertainty

Jafino, B.A. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)

To support equitable planning, model-based analyses can be used to explore inequality patterns arising from different scenarios. Scenario discovery is increasingly used to extract insights from ensembles of simulation. Here, we apply two scenario discovery approaches for unraveling inequality patterns and their drivers, with an application to...

journal article 2021

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Accounting for Multisectoral Dynamics in Supporting Equitable Adaptation Planning: A Case Study on the Rice Agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta

Jafino, B.A. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Klijn, F. (author), Dung, Nguyen Viet (author), van Delden, Hedwig (author), Haasnoot, Marjolijn (author), Sutanudjaja, Edwin H. (author)

The need for explicitly considering equity in climate change adaptation planning is increasingly being recognized. However, evaluations of adaptation often adopt an aggregated perspective, while disaggregation of results is important to learn about who benefits when and where. A typical example is adaptation of rice agriculture in the Vietnam...

journal article 2021

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Exploratory modeling for analyzing coupled human-natural systems under uncertainty

Moallemi, Enayat A. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), de Haan, Fjalar J. (author), Bryan, Brett A. (author)

Modeling is a crucial approach for understanding the past and exploring the future of coupled human-natural systems. However, uncertainty in various forms challenges inferences from modeling results. Model-based support for decision-making has increasingly adopted an emerging exploratory approach. This approach addresses uncertainty...

journal article 2020

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Polder pumping-station for the future: designing and retrofitting infrastructure systems under structural uncertainty

Timmermans, Jos (author), van Druten, Emiel (author), Wauben, Marcel (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)

In designing and retrofitting infrastructure systems, engineers are increasingly confronted by uncertainties about the future operating conditions of these systems, stemming from climate change or rapid socio-economic development. Particularly for long-lived capital-intensive infrastructure components like pumping stations, current...

journal article 2020

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Governing climate risks in the face of normative uncertainties

Taebi, B. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Kermisch, C.F.N. (author)

Governing risks is not only a technical matter, but also a matter of ethical and societal considerations. In this article, we argue that in addition to scientific and technical uncertainties, we need to also address normative uncertainties of risk decisions. We define normative uncertainties as situations where there are different partially...

review 2020

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How to evaluate a monitoring system for adaptive policies: criteria for signposts selection and their model-based evaluation

Raso, L. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Timmermans, Jos (author), Panthou, Geremy (author)

Adaptive policies have emerged as a valuable strategy for dealing with uncertainties by recognising the capacity of systems to adapt over time to new circumstances and surprises. The efficacy of adaptive policies hinges on detecting on-going change and ensuring that actions are indeed taken if and when necessary. This is operationalised by...

journal article 2019

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Assessing the capacity of adaptive policy pathways to adapt on time by mapping trigger values to their outcomes

Raso, L. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Timmermans, Jos (author)

Climate change raises serious concerns for policymakers that want to ensure the success of long-term policies. To guarantee satisfactory decisions in the face of deep uncertainties, adaptive policy pathways might be used. Adaptive policy pathways are designed to take actions according to how the future will actually unfold. In adaptive...

journal article 2019

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Designing monitoring arrangements for collaborative learning about adaptation pathways

Hermans, L.M. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author), ter Maat, Judith (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)

Adaptation pathways approaches support long-term planning under uncertainty. The use of adaptation pathways implies a systematic monitoring effort to inform future adaptation decisions. Such monitoring should feed into a long-term collaborative learning process between multiple actors at various levels. This raises questions about who should...

journal article 2017

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Comparing Robust Decision-Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for model-based decision support under deep uncertainty

Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author), Walker, W.E. (author)

A variety of model-based approaches for supporting decision-making under deep uncertainty have been suggested, but they are rarely compared and contrasted. In this paper, we compare Robust Decision-Making with Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. We apply both to a hypothetical case inspired by a river reach in the Rhine Delta of the Netherlands...

journal article 2016

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Dealing with Uncertainties in Fresh Water Supply: Experiences in the Netherlands

Thissen, W.A.H. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Mens, M. (author), Van der Sluijs, J. (author), Stemberger, S. (author), Wardekker, A. (author), Wildschut, D. (author)

Developing fresh water supply strategies for the long term needs to take into account the fact that the future is deeply uncertain. Not only the extent of climate change and the extent and nature of its impacts are unknown, also socio-economic conditions may change in unpredictable ways, as well as social preferences. Often, it is not possible...

journal article 2015

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Adaptive delta management: Roots and branches

Timmermans, J.S. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author), Hermans, L.M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Rutten, M.M. (author), Thissen, W.A.H. (author)

Deltas are generally recognized as vulnerable to climate change and therefore a salient topic in adaptation science. Deltas are also highly dynamic systems viewed from physical (erosion, sedimentation, subsidence), social (demographic), economic (trade), infrastructures (transport, energy, metropolization) and cultural (multiethnic) perspectives...

conference paper 2015

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Considerations in designing an evaluation system for adaptive delta management

Hermans, L.M. (author), Maat, J. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)

New planning approaches put new requirements on evaluation. A recent innovation in the water domain is adaptive delta management (ADM). ADM supports long-term planning in the face of uncertainty. This paper discusses the main considerations for the design of an evaluation system for ADM, departing from literature on evaluation systems, adaptive...

conference paper 2014

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Fit for purpose? Building and evaluating a fast, integrated model for exploring water policy pathways

Haasnoot, M. (author), Van Deursen, W.P.A. (author), Guillaume, J.H.A. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Van Beek, E. (author), Middelkoop, H. (author)

Exploring adaptation pathways is an emerging approach for supporting decision making under uncertain changing conditions. An adaptation pathway is a sequence of policy actions to reach specified objectives. To develop adaptation pathways, interactions between environment and policy response need to be analysed over time for an ensemble of...

journal article 2014

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Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world

Haasnoot, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Walker, W.E. (author), Ter Maat, J. (author)

A new paradigm for planning under conditions of deep uncertainty has emerged in the literature. According to this paradigm, a planner should create a strategic vision of the future, commit to short-term actions, and establish a framework to guide future actions. A plan that embodies these ideas allows for its dynamic adaptation over time to meet...

journal article 2013