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Using Machine Learning for Agent Specifications in Agent-Based Models and Simulations: A Critical Review and Guidelines

Aleebrahimdehkordi, M. (author), Lechner, J.M. (author), Ghorbani, Amineh (author), Nikolic, I. (author), Chappin, E.J.L. (author), Herder, P.M. (author)

Agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS), whether simple toy models or complex data-driven ones, is regularly applied in various domains to study the system-level patterns arising from individual behaviour and interactions. However, ABMS still faces diverse challenges such as modelling more representative agents or improving computational...

journal article 2023

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It’s in the social network: The Social Neighbourhood model to unravel local social structures for liveable and safe neighbourhoods

Slingerland, G. (author), Nikolic, I. (author), Brazier, F.M. (author)

Fast growth of cities decreases the quality of life in these places. In response, Municipalities install policies aiming to improve local livability. While literature suggests social structures to have a defining impact on policy effectiveness, current evaluation metrics are not able to take this into account. This paper presents the Social...

journal article 2023

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Modelling Energy Security: The Case of Dutch Urban Energy Communities

Fouladvand, J. (author), Verkerk, D. (author), Nikolic, I. (author), Ghorbani, Amineh (author)

Energy communities are gaining momentum in the context of the energy transition. Given the distributed and collective action nature of energy communities, energy security of these local energy systems is more than just security of supply and related to issues such as affordability and acceptability of energy to members of the community. We build...

conference paper 2022

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Actor Behaviour and Robustness of Industrial Symbiosis Networks: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach

Lange, K.P.H. (author), Korevaar, G. (author), Nikolic, I. (author), Herder, P.M. (author)

Industrial Symbiosis Networks (ISNs) consist of firms that exchange residual materials and energy locally, in order to gain economic, environmental and/or social advantages. In practice, ISNs regularly fail when partners leave and the recovery of residual streams ends. Regarding the current societal need for a shift towards sustainability, it is...

journal article 2021

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Agent-based Modelling and Simulation for Circular Business Model Experimentation

Lange, K.P.H. (author), Korevaar, G. (author), Oskam, Inge (author), Nikolic, I. (author), Herder, P.M. (author)

The viability of novel network-level circular business models (CBMs) is debated heavily. Many companies are hesitant to implement CBMs in their daily practice, because of the various roles, stakes and opinions and the resulting uncertainties. Testing novel CBMs prior to implementation is needed. Some scholars have used digital simulation models...

journal article 2021

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From niche to market-an agent-based modeling approach for the economic uptake of electro-fuels (power-to-fuel) in the german energy system

Schnuelle, Christian (author), Kisjes, K.H. (author), Stuehrmann, Torben (author), Thier, Pablo (author), Nikolic, I. (author), Von Gleich, Arnim (author), Goessling-Reisemann, Stefan (author)

The transition process towards renewable energy systems is facing challenges in both fluctuating electricity generation of photovoltaic and wind power as well as socio-economic disruptions. With regard to sector integration, solutions need to be developed, especially for the mobility and the industry sector, because their ad hoc...

journal article 2020

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Flood risk management in Sint Maarten–A coupled agent-based and flood modelling method

Abebe, Y.A. (author), Ghorbani, Amineh (author), Nikolic, I. (author), Sanchez, Arlex (author), Vojinovic, Zoran (author)

Disaster risk reduction is a major concern of small island developing states. Measures to reduce risk should not only be based on the magnitude of physical hazard, but also on the exposure and vulnerability of communities. In this article, we examine flood risk management policies in the Caribbean island of Sint Maarten using coupled agent-based...

journal article 2019

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Agent-Based Modelling of the Social Dynamics of Energy End-Use

Chappin, E.J.L. (author), Nikolic, I. (author), Yorke-Smith, N. (author)

Agent-based modelling and simulation is now accepted as a valuable tool for describing the dynamics of complex socio-technical systems, and for studying complex adaptive systems. This chapter surveys the opportunities and challenges in agent-based models (ABM) for the social dynamics of energy end use. Following an introduction to the...

book chapter 2019

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An Agent-based Model to Evaluate Influences on Structural Reliability by Human and Organizational Factors

Ren, X. (author), Terwel, K.C. (author), Nikolic, I. (author), van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M. (author)

Human and Organizational Factors (HOFs) are considered to have significant impacts on structural reliability. Yet how structural reliability is affected by these factors and how large this impact is remains inadequately studied. A model that is designed to reveal such relationships is proposed in this paper. First, a review of problem related...

conference paper 2019

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A coupled flood-agent-institution modelling (CLAIM) framework for urban flood risk management

Abebe, Y.A. (author), Ghorbani, Amineh (author), Nikolic, I. (author), Vojinovic, Zoran (author), Sanchez, Arlex (author)

In this paper, we describe a modelling framework that allows the integration of human and physical components of flood risk. Within this framework, flood risk management is conceptualized as a coupled human-flood system. The human subsystem includes individuals and their behaviour and institutions that shape human-flood interaction. The...

journal article 2019

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Jumping to a better world: An agent-based exploration of criticality in low-carbon energy transitions

Kraan, O.D.E. (author), Dalderop, Steven (author), Kramer, G.J. (author), Nikolic, I. (author)

Understanding the possible transition pathways of the energy system requires the integration of human behaviour in energy system models. In order to model the influence of actor behaviour we have developed ACT (Agent-Based Model of Critical Transitions), an agent-based model inspired by an existing conceptualisation of critical transitions....

journal article 2019

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Why fully liberalised electricity markets will fail to meet deep decarbonisation targets even with strong carbon pricing

Kraan, Oscar (author), Kramer, Gert Jan (author), Nikolic, I. (author), Chappin, E.J.L. (author), Koning, Vinzenz (author)

Full decarbonisation of the electricity system is one of the key elements to limit global warming. As this transition takes place, the electricity system must maintain system adequacy and remain affordable to consumers. In liberalised electricity markets investors are seen as key actors driving this transition. Due to the intermittent...

journal article 2019

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Investment in the future electricity system - An agent-based modelling approach

Kraan, O. (author), Kramer, G. J. (author), Nikolic, I. (author)

Now that renewable technologies are both technically and commercially mature, the imperfect rational behaviour of investors becomes a critical factor in the future success of the energy transition. Here, we take an agent-based approach to model investor decision making in the electricity sector by modelling investors as actors with different ...

journal article 2018

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Behaviour change in post-consumer recycling: Applying agent-based modelling in social experiment

Tong, Xin (author), Nikolic, I. (author), Dijkhuizen, B.C.J. (author), van den Hoven, M.F.S. (author), Minderhoud, M. (author), Wäckerlin, N. (author), Wang, T. (author), Tao, Dongyan (author)

Change in consumer behavior that leads to increased waste separation and recycling has been identified as a critical component of Chinese national strategy for constructing a “Circular Economy”. Various innovative solutions at community level targeting consumer behaviors are emerging in Chinese cities, using information technology that can...

journal article 2018

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A complementary understanding of residential energy demand, consumption and services

Hiteva, Ralitsa (author), Ives, Matthew (author), Weijnen, M.P.C. (author), Nikolic, I. (author)

This chapter explores potential ways to implement, and benefits for policymaking of, the complementary use of two different types of modelling for analysing residential energy consumption and ethnographic research. The more traditional approach of techno-economic modelling is considered alongside agent-based modelling that incorporates both...

book chapter 2018

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An agent-based model of flood risk and insurance

Dubbelboer, J. (author), Nikolic, I. (author), Jenkins, K. (author), Hall, J (author)

Flood risk emerges from the dynamic interaction between natural hazards and human vulnerability. Methods for the quantification of flood risk are well established, but tend to deal with human and economic vulnerability as being static or changing with an exogenously defined trend. In this paper we present an Agent-Based Model (ABM) developed...

journal article 2017

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Exploring policy impacts for servicising in product-based markets: A generic agent-based model

van der Veen, R.A.C. (author), Kisjes, K.H. (author), Nikolic, I. (author)

The shift to markets based on servicising, i.e. market-level transitions from product-based to service-based production and consumption patterns, may contribute to achieve absolute decoupling, i.e. the combined development of economic growth and environmental impact reduction. However, the potential of this contribution is largely unknown. In...

journal article 2017

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An agent-based model of electricity consumer: Smart metering policy implications in Europe

Vasiljevska, J. (author), Douw, J.V. (author), Mengolini, A. (author), Nikolic, I. (author)

EU Regulation 2009/72/EC concerning common rules for internal market in electricity calls upon 80% of EU electricity consumers to be equipped with smart metering systems by 2020, provided that a positive economic assessment of all long-term costs and benefits to the market and the individual consumer is guaranteed. Understanding the impact...

journal article 2017

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How Radical is a Radical Innovation? An Outline for a Computational Approach

Kasmire, J. (author), Korhonen, J.M. (author), Nikolic, I. (author)

Radical innovations prompt significant subsequent technological development and exhibit novelty and “architectural” innovation, i.e. rearranging the way design elements are put together in a system. Thus, radical innovations often serve as the foundation for new technological systems, industries or domains and are seen to involve significant...

journal article 2012

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Diffusion: Key to Horticulture Innovation Systems

Kasmire, J. (author), Dijkema, G.P.J. (author), Nikolic, I. (author)

Horticulture, a pillar of the Dutch economy, has already achieved remarkable productivity increases through the use of natural gas for heating, lighting and CO2. Further innovative technologies that could aid the transition toward sustainable energy use, including heat/cold storage and deepgeothermal heat sources, are currently in development...

conference paper 2012