Measuring the impacts of human and organizational factors on human errors in the Dutch construction industry using structured expert judgement

This study focuses on measuring the influence of critical Human and Organizational Factors (HOFs) on human error occurrence in structural design and construction tasks within the context of the Dutch construction industry. The primary research question addressed in this paper concerns the extent of HOFs’ contribution to human error occurrence...

Shrinking the Variance in Experts’ “Classical” Weights Used in Expert Judgment Aggregation

Mathematical aggregation of probabilistic expert judgments often involves weighted linear combinations of experts’ elicited probability distributions of uncertain quantities. Experts’ weights are commonly derived from calibration experiments based on the experts’ performance scores, where performance is evaluated in terms of the calibration and...

Quantifying risks to security of supply for 100% hydrogen in built-environment using Structured Expert Judgement

In this thesis, we explore a proposal from Stedin that advocates heating the city of Stad aan `t Haringvliet with hydrogen rather than natural gas. Switching from natural gas to hydrogen presents plenty of unknown factors which must be properly evaluated for an accurate and realistic risk picture, including the danger of running out of hydrogen....

Dutch electricity spot price forecasting: Two study cases using structured expert judgement

Electricity is a quite unique commodity. Due to the economically non-storable nature of the commodity that electricity is, the constant balance between consumption and production, weather effects, such as temperature, wind speed, solar intensity etc, and the intensity of everyday and business activities, e.g. holi- days, weekends, on- and off...

A retrospective assessment of COVID-19 model performance in the USA

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) forecasts from over 100 models are readily available. However, little published information exists regarding the performance of their uncertainty estimates (i.e. probabilistic performance). To evaluate their probabilistic performance, we employ the classical model (CM), an established method typically used...

Forecasting elections based on the aggregation of election polls

<br/>Elections polls have been known to exist since 1824 [14], to fulfill the objective of what is happening and may happen. In this thesis it is investigated what the performance of election polls is and if the aggregation of polls give a better forecast than the polls themselves. The data is used of Spain during years 2012 until 2017 and The...

Update (1.2) to ANDURIL and ANDURYL: Performance improvements and a graphical user interface

This is an update to PII: S2352711018300608 and S2352711019302419 In this paper, we present three main improvements of ANDURIL and its python version ANDURYL. First the MATLAB version ANDURIL is brought to the Python version standard by implementing (i) user defined quantiles and (ii) the possibility to deal with missing values. Second, the...

Update (1.1) to ANDURIL—A MATLAB toolbox for ANalysis and Decisions with UnceRtaInty: Learning from expert judgments: ANDURYL

This is an update to PII: S2352711018300608. In this paper, we discuss ANDURYL, which is a Python-based open source successor of the MATLAB toolbox ANDURIL. The output of ANDURYL is in good agreement with the results obtained from ANDURIL and EXCALIBUR. Additional features available in ANDURYL, and not available in its predecessors, are discussed.

ANDURIL - A MATLAB toolbox for ANalysis and Decisions with UnceRtaInty: Learning from expert judgments

The Classical model (or Cooke’s model) for elicitation and combination of expert judgments has been used in science and engineering since at least the early 1990’s. The most widely used program for applications of this model is EXCALIBUR. However, its code is not available for practitioners, which limits the accessibility and potential of the...

A Tool for Estimating Marine Terminal Dimensions and Costs in a Project’s Feasibility Phase: Taking into account uncertainties

The main objective of this study is the realisation of a computer tool. The function of the tool is to estimate the required dimensions and quantities of essential container, dry and liquid bulk terminal elements, in an early design phase. As well as to give an estimate of the construction costs of these marine terminals. Terminal element...

Cross validation for the classical model of structured expert judgment

We update the 2008 TU Delft structured expert judgment database with data from 33 professionally contracted Classical Model studies conducted between 2006 and March 2015 to evaluate its performance relative to other expert aggregation models. We briefly review alternative mathematical aggregation schemes, including harmonic weighting, before...

Out-of-sample validation for structured expert judgment of Asian carp establishment in Lake Erie

Structured expert judgment (SEJ) is used to quantify the uncertainty of nonindigenous fish (bighead carp [Hypophthalmichthys nobilis] and silver carp [H. molitrix]) establishment in Lake Erie. The classical model for structured expert judgment model is applied. Forming a weighted combination (called a decision maker) of experts' distributions,...