Robust Policies: An Exploratory Study on the Energy Transition of the Dutch Built Environment Sector

This study has been performed in cooperation with TNO and set out to analyze the robustness of Dutch energy transition policies under deep uncertainty for the scope of the built environment sector. Open data is gathered which is used in a System Dynamics model to allow exploration under deep uncertainty. The Adaptive Robust Design methodology...

Exploring carbon futures in the EU power sector: Using Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis to explore policy regimes under deep uncertainty

The European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in combination with other renewable electricity (RES-E) support schemes such as (premium) feed-in tariffs or tradable green certificates do not guarantee a carbon neutral power sector in 2050. This paper shows that many plausible futures of high carbon emissions exist when no substantial efficiency...

Exploring Carbon Futures in the EU Power Sector: Using Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis to Assess Policy Regimes under Deep Uncertainty

The current European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in combination with other renewable electricity (RES-E) support schemes such as a premium feed-in tariff (FIT) or tradable green certificates system (TGC) do not guarantee a carbon neutral power sector in 2050. This study shows that many plausible high carbon emissions futures exist when no...

Energy Transitions towards Sustainability I: A Staged Exploration of Complexity and Deep Uncertainty

This paper illustrates the use of Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis – a multi-method combining System Dynamics and Exploratory Modeling and Analysis to explore and analyze uncertain dynamic issues and test deep policy robustness. This paper gives an overview of the current state of this multi-method by means of an illustration....