How predictable are macroscopic traffic states: a perspective of uncertainty quantification

Traffic condition forecasting is fundamental for Intelligent Transportation Systems. Besides accuracy, many services require an estimate of uncertainty for each prediction. Uncertainty quantification must consider the inherent randomness in traffic dynamics, the so-called aleatoric uncertainty, and the additional distrust caused by data shortage...

Estimating the occurrence of slow slip events and earthquakes with an ensemble Kalman filter

Our ability to forecast earthquakes and slow slip events is hampered by limited information on the current state of stress on faults. Ensemble data assimilation methods permit estimating the state by combining physics-based models and observations, while considering their uncertainties. We use an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to estimate...

Multi-Graph Convolutional-Recurrent Neural Network (MGC-RNN) for Short-Term Forecasting of Transit Passenger Flow

Short-term forecasting of passenger flow is critical for transit management and crowd regulation. Spatial dependencies, temporal dependencies, inter-station correlations driven by other latent factors, and exogenous factors bring challenges to the short-term forecasts of passenger flow of urban rail transit networks. An innovative deep...

Estimate the limit of predictability in short-term traffic forecasting: An entropy-based approach

Accurate short-term traffic forecasting is the cornerstone for Intelligent Transportation Systems. In the past several decades, many models have been proposed to continuously improve the predictive accuracy. A key but unsolved question is whether there is a theoretical bound to the accuracy with which traffic can be predicted and whether that...

Multistep traffic forecasting by dynamic graph convolution: Interpretations of real-time spatial correlations

Accurate and explainable short-term traffic forecasting is pivotal for making trustworthy decisions in advanced traffic control and guidance systems. Recently, deep learning approach, as a data-driven alternative to traffic flow model-based data assimilation and prediction methods, has become popular in this domain. Many of these deep learning...