Robust decision making for future train maintenance: Illustrating the abilities of decision making under deep uncertainty within the train maintenance context

This research has illustrated the abilities of incorporating robust decision making within train maintenance. Both scheduled and unscheduled maintenance processes of the Nederlandse Spoorwegen (NS) have been examined, after which exploratory modeling and analysis enabled developing valuable insights for decision makers. Scenario analysis through...

Impact of Similarity Metric Selectionfor Multiclass Scenario Discovery ofLand-Use Change Models

Land-use change models are often used to explore future land-use. Currently, most land-use change models run a small number of predetermined scenarios. To better address the multidimensional nature of uncertainty about the future, previous studies have argued for covering a wider range of the uncertainty space than is possible with existing...

Scenario Discovery in land use change models

There are bidirectional interactions between land-use and environmental systems: the way land is used has impacts on the environment, while changes in the environment have impacts on the way land is used. The use of Land Use Change models enables policy makers to gain insights into possible developments of the land-use system, the possible...

A dependent sampling approach to Scenario Discovery

The use of scenario planning has a long history in decision-making and public policy (Bryant and Lempert, 2010). Traditional scenario planning, as, for example, used by the Shell Scenarios group, provides tools to communicate and characterize uncertainty,allowing decision-makers to anticipate the future and create more robust strategies ...

Uncertainty in Long-Term Grid Planning: Approaching Transmission Expansion Planning through the Framework of Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

Motivations for sustainability are initiating an energy transition that is changing the European energy domain. The transition effectuated the adaptation of large volumes of wind and solar based generation capacity. The intermittent power-output of these Variable Renewable Energy Sources challenges the balancing operation of the electricity...

Modelling Uncertainty: Developing and Using Simulation Models for Exploring the Consequences of Deep Uncertainty in Complex Problems

Simulation models are increasingly used for exploring the consequences of deep uncertainty in complex societal issues. The complexity of societal grand challenges, often characterised by the interrelatedness of different elements in the systems underlying these challenges, often renders mental simulation impossible, necessitating the use of...

LPG Terminal Hotspot Identification - The application of Scenario Discovery to a forecast model

Vopak is the world largest independent tank storage provider, specialized in storing liquid chemicals, gasses & oil products and is active in 29 countries. For the storage of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), a global strategy was constructed in 2010, in which LPG terminal opportunities have been identified and which is now out of date. The problem...