Projecting Global Mean Sea-Level Change Using CMIP6 Models

The effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) of models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) has increased relative to CMIP5. We explore the implications of this for global mean sea-level (GMSL) change projections in 2100 for three emissions scenarios. CMIP6 projections of global surface air temperature are substantially higher...

Clouds and Convective Self-Aggregation in a Multimodel Ensemble of Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Simulations

The Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project (RCEMIP) is an intercomparison of multiple types of numerical models configured in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE). RCE is an idealization of the tropical atmosphere that has long been used to study basic questions in climate science. Here, we employ RCE to investigate the...

The role of clouds in climate model bias and sensitivity

Clouds are prominent in the climate system, since they play a major role in the way energy and water are cycled through the atmosphere. One of the most relevant impacts of the clouds on the earth's climate is their interaction with the radiative fluxes. Changes in this interaction in response to an external perturbation are known as cloud...

Functional model of water balance variability at the catchment scale: 2. Elasticity of fast and slow runoff components to precipitation change in the continental United States

Assessing the sensitivity of annual streamflow to precipitation is challenging due to the complexity of the processes that control the water balance. A low-dimensional model can be useful to interrogate data in regional assessments of a large number of catchments, and can provide insights into the broad similarities and differences between...