Breaking the Curse of Dimensionality: Polynomial Chaos for Exploratory Modelling

In light of worsening climate change and an increased interest in adapting infrastructure to cope with its effects, model-based decision support has become an essential tool for policy makers. In conditions of deep uncertainty, models may be used to explore a large space of possible system behaviours and so encourage a wider consideration of the...

Uncertainty quantification of the lifetime of self-healing thermal barrier coatings based on surrogate modelling of thermal cyclic fracture and healing

Computationally-efficient surrogate models based on a Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) are developed to quantify the uncertainties in the fracture behavior and lifetime of a self-healing thermal barrier coating system (SH-TBC) and a benchmark conventional TBC system. The surrogate models are built using deterministic information from...

Wind Farm Layout Optimisation Under Uncertainty Using Surrogate Models

This research aims to develop a method to create a wind farm layout that is robust against the uncertainty source, the inter-year variation of Weibull parameters and wind direction sector probabilities. A wind farm layout optimisation problem under uncertainty corresponds to optimisation under uncertainty (OUU), which is computationally...