Searched for: subject%3A%22scenario%255C+discovery%22
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Smits, Xander (author)
Infrastructure is at risk to climate uncertainty due to a combination of long life spans, complexity of the systems it is embedded in, and the high investment costs often necessary. Current infrastructure planning approaches lose efficacy under deep uncertainty, necessitating new approaches that function better under conditions where the future...
master thesis 2024
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Tunca, Kerem (author)
This research has illustrated the abilities of incorporating robust decision making within train maintenance. Both scheduled and unscheduled maintenance processes of the Nederlandse Spoorwegen (NS) have been examined, after which exploratory modeling and analysis enabled developing valuable insights for decision makers. Scenario analysis through...
master thesis 2023
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Quispel, Omar (author)
Land-use change models are often used to explore future land-use. Currently, most land-use change models run a small number of predetermined scenarios. To better address the multidimensional nature of uncertainty about the future, previous studies have argued for covering a wider range of the uncertainty space than is possible with existing...
master thesis 2021
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de Wildt, T.E. (author), Boijmans, Anne R. (author), Chappin, E.J.L. (author), Herder, P.M. (author)
This paper demonstrates an approach to assess, ex ante, the social acceptance of sustainable heating systems in city districts. More sustainable heating systems are required in city districts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, these systems may lack social acceptance as they often require significant adjustments to homes and may...
journal article 2021
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Cox, M.E. (author)
There are bidirectional interactions between land-use and environmental systems: the way land is used has impacts on the environment, while changes in the environment have impacts on the way land is used. The use of Land Use Change models enables policy makers to gain insights into possible developments of the land-use system, the possible...
master thesis 2020
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van Droffelaar, I.S. (author)
The use of scenario planning has a long history in decision-making and public policy (Bryant and Lempert, 2010). Traditional scenario planning, as, for example, used by the Shell Scenarios group, provides tools to communicate and characterize uncertainty,allowing decision-makers to anticipate the future and create more robust strategies ...
master thesis 2020
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Calon, Rob (author)
Motivations for sustainability are initiating an energy transition that is changing the European energy domain. The transition effectuated the adaptation of large volumes of wind and solar based generation capacity. The intermittent power-output of these Variable Renewable Energy Sources challenges the balancing operation of the electricity...
master thesis 2020
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Nederlof, Ilse (author)
In the face of climate change, urban stormwater management practices are subject to an uncertain context. More frequent and extreme rainfall events are expected in many urban areas. The extent how climate change will affect weather patterns is however uncertain. This challenges contemporary stormwater management practices. A post-disaster...
master thesis 2019
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Karampekios, Antonios (author)
Greece was amongst the first countries to be hit after the outburst of the European financial crisis in 2008. The crisis revealed the underlying intra-Eurozone macroeconomic imbalances and turned the attention of the global community and investors towards the very high level of Greek public debt. Private investments in the Greek economy also...
master thesis 2019
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Auping, Willem L. (author)
Simulation models are increasingly used for exploring the consequences of deep uncertainty in complex societal issues. The complexity of societal grand challenges, often characterised by the interrelatedness of different elements in the systems underlying these challenges, often renders mental simulation impossible, necessitating the use of...
doctoral thesis 2018
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Steinmann, Patrick (author)
Many societal, environmental and technological challenges can be characterized as wicked problems by virtue of being difficult to understand, define and solve. examples include sustainable management and consumption of resources, resilient technical infrastructure or curbing plastic pollution of the oceans. One method of tackling such wicked...
master thesis 2018
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Halim, R.A. (author)
Uncertainties in future global trade flows due to changes in trade agreements, transport technologies or sustainability policies, will affect the patterns of global freight transport and, as a consequence, also affect the demand for major freight transport infrastructures such as ports and hinterland networks. Policy makers face the challenge of...
doctoral thesis 2017
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
There is a growing interest in model-based decision support under deep uncertainty, reflected in a variety of approaches being put forward in the literature. A key idea shared among these is the use of models for exploratory rather than predictive purposes. Exploratory modeling aims at exploring the implications for decision making of the...
journal article 2017
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Greeven, Sebastiaan (author), Kraan, O.D.E. (author), Chappin, E.J.L. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
Developing model-based narratives of society’s response to climate change is challenged by two factors. First, society’s response to possible future climate change is subject to many uncertainties. Second, we argue that society’s mitigation action emerge out of the actions and interactions of the many actors in society. Together, these two...
journal article 2016
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author), Walker, W.E. (author)
A variety of model-based approaches for supporting decision-making under deep uncertainty have been suggested, but they are rarely compared and contrasted. In this paper, we compare Robust Decision-Making with Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. We apply both to a hypothetical case inspired by a river reach in the Rhine Delta of the Netherlands...
journal article 2016
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Cunningham, S. (author)
Scenario discovery is a model-based approach to scenario development under deep uncertainty. Scenario discovery relies on the use of statistical machine learning algorithms. The most frequently used algorithm is the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM). This algorithm identifies regions in an uncertain model input space that are highly...
journal article 2016
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Halim, R.A. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Tavasszy, Lorant (author)
The global container transport system is changing quickly. Ports can be severely affected by these changes; therefore, ports need insight into how the system might change and what the impact of this will be on their competitive position. Given the intrinsic complexity of the container transport system and the presence of a wide range of...
journal article 2016
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Auping, Willem L. (author), Pruyt, E. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
During the first months, the 2014 outbreak of the Ebola virus (EBOV) in West Africa was characterised by inadequate intervention capacities. In this paper, we investigate (1) the influence of limited but dynamic intervention capacities and their effect on the effective reproduction number, and (2) the effects of proactive versus reactive...
journal article 2016
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Greeven, S.T. (author)
This research has been aimed at identifying internally consistent and plausible narratives on the pathways of society’s response to climate change. In this research, society’s response to climate change has been interpreted as the emergence of climate change mitigation action by society. Studying society’s response to climate change is hampered...
master thesis 2015
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De Wildt, T.E. (author)
Three main goals have been assigned to Dutch electricity policy: a reliable, affordable and clean electricity sector. In order to make the electricity section cleaner by decreasing GHG emissions, the SDE+ regulation has been introduced to increase the share of renewable energies in the overall electricity production. The drawback of the...
master thesis 2014
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