Searched for: subject:"scenario%5C+discovery"
(1 - 15 of 15)
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Karampekios, Antonios (author)
Greece was amongst the first countries to be hit after the outburst of the European financial crisis in 2008. The crisis revealed the underlying intra-Eurozone macroeconomic imbalances and turned the attention of the global community and investors towards the very high level of Greek public debt. Private investments in the Greek economy also...
master thesis 2019
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Auping, W.L. (author)
Simulation models are increasingly used for exploring the consequences of deep uncertainty in complex societal issues. The complexity of societal grand challenges, often characterised by the interrelatedness of different elements in the systems underlying these challenges, often renders mental simulation impossible, necessitating the use of...
doctoral thesis 2018
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Steinmann, Patrick (author)
Many societal, environmental and technological challenges can be characterized as wicked problems by virtue of being difficult to understand, define and solve. examples include sustainable management and consumption of resources, resilient technical infrastructure or curbing plastic pollution of the oceans. One method of tackling such wicked...
master thesis 2018
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
There is a growing interest in model-based decision support under deep uncertainty, reflected in a variety of approaches being put forward in the literature. A key idea shared among these is the use of models for exploratory rather than predictive purposes. Exploratory modeling aims at exploring the implications for decision making of the...
journal article 2017
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Halim, R.A. (author)
Uncertainties in future global trade flows due to changes in trade agreements, transport technologies or sustainability policies, will affect the patterns of global freight transport and, as a consequence, also affect the demand for major freight transport infrastructures such as ports and hinterland networks. Policy makers face the challenge of...
doctoral thesis 2017
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author), Walker, W.E. (author)
A variety of model-based approaches for supporting decision-making under deep uncertainty have been suggested, but they are rarely compared and contrasted. In this paper, we compare Robust Decision-Making with Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. We apply both to a hypothetical case inspired by a river reach in the Rhine Delta of the Netherlands...
journal article 2016
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Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Cunningham, S. (author)
Scenario discovery is a model-based approach to scenario development under deep uncertainty. Scenario discovery relies on the use of statistical machine learning algorithms. The most frequently used algorithm is the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM). This algorithm identifies regions in an uncertain model input space that are highly...
journal article 2016
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Halim, R.A. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Tavasszy, Lorant (author)
The global container transport system is changing quickly. Ports can be severely affected by these changes; therefore, ports need insight into how the system might change and what the impact of this will be on their competitive position. Given the intrinsic complexity of the container transport system and the presence of a wide range of...
journal article 2016
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Greeven, Sebastiaan (author), Kraan, O.D.E. (author), Chappin, E.J.L. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
Developing model-based narratives of society’s response to climate change is challenged by two factors. First, society’s response to possible future climate change is subject to many uncertainties. Second, we argue that society’s mitigation action emerge out of the actions and interactions of the many actors in society. Together, these two...
journal article 2016
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Auping, W.L. (author), Pruyt, E. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
During the first months, the 2014 outbreak of the Ebola virus (EBOV) in West Africa was characterised by inadequate intervention capacities. In this paper, we investigate (1) the influence of limited but dynamic intervention capacities and their effect on the effective reproduction number, and (2) the effects of proactive versus reactive...
journal article 2016
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Greeven, S.T. (author)
This research has been aimed at identifying internally consistent and plausible narratives on the pathways of society’s response to climate change. In this research, society’s response to climate change has been interpreted as the emergence of climate change mitigation action by society. Studying society’s response to climate change is hampered...
master thesis 2015
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De Wildt, T.E. (author)
Three main goals have been assigned to Dutch electricity policy: a reliable, affordable and clean electricity sector. In order to make the electricity section cleaner by decreasing GHG emissions, the SDE+ regulation has been introduced to increase the share of renewable energies in the overall electricity production. The drawback of the...
master thesis 2014
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Auping, W.L. (author), De Jong, S. (author), Pruyt, E. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
The US’ shale gas revolution, a spectacular increase in natural gas extraction from previously unconventional sources, has led to considerable lower gas prices in North America. This study focusses on consequences of the shale gas revolution on state stability of traditional oil and gas exporting countries in the vicinity of the EU. For this...
conference paper 2014
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Pek, B.J. (author)
Vopak is the world largest independent tank storage provider, specialized in storing liquid chemicals, gasses & oil products and is active in 29 countries. For the storage of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), a global strategy was constructed in 2010, in which LPG terminal opportunities have been identified and which is now out of date. The problem...
master thesis 2014
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Walker, W.E. (author), Haasnoot, M. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author)
There is increasing interest in long-term plans that can adapt to changing situations under conditions of deep uncertainty. We argue that a sustainable plan should not only achieve economic, environmental, and social objectives, but should be robust and able to be adapted over time to (unforeseen) future conditions. Large numbers of papers...
journal article 2013
Searched for: subject:"scenario%5C+discovery"
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