Ice sheet contributions to future sea-level rise from structured expert judgment

Despite considerable advances in process understanding, numerical modeling, and the observational record of ice sheet contributions to global mean sea-level rise (SLR) since the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, severe limitations remain in the predictive capability of ice sheet models. As a...

A consistent sea-level reconstruction and its budget on basin and global scales over 1958-2014

Different sea level reconstructions show a spread in sea level rise over the last six decades and it is not yet certain whether the sum of contributors explains the reconstructed rise. Possible causes for this spread are, among others, vertical land motion at tide-gauge locations and the sparse sampling of the spatially variable ocean. To...

Present-day and future Antarctic ice sheet climate and surface mass balance in the Community Earth System Model

We present climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) as simulated by the global, coupled ocean–atmosphere–land Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a horizontal resolution of ∼ 1 ^∘ in the past, present and future (1850–2100). CESM correctly simulates present-day Antarctic sea ice extent, large...