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Montanari, A. (author), Shoemaker, C.A. (author), Van de Giesen, N.C. (author)This paper introduces the Water Resources Research special section on Uncertainty Assessment in Surface and Subsurface Hydrology. Over the past years, hydrological literature has seen a large increase in the number of papers dealing with uncertainty. In this article, we present an overview of the different sources of uncertainty and the...journal article
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Rijcken, T. (author), Stijnen, J. (author), Slootjes, N. (author)The Dutch Delta Program is currently developing new government policies for flood protection and fresh water supply. Decision support instruments have to address the program’s technical and political complexity. The water system functions are highly interwoven and would benefit from an integrated approach on a national level, with decisions...journal article 2012
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Walker, W.E. (author)Much policy advice is formulated implicitly assuming that the future can be predicted. A static policy is developed using a single ‘most likely’ future, often based on the extrapolation of trends; or a static ‘robust’ policy is developed that will produce acceptable outcomes in a range of plausible future worlds. However, if the future turns out...journal article 2015
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Yao, W. (author), Chen, X. (author), Zhao, Y. (author), Van Tooren, M.J.L. (author)To comprehensively assess fractionated spacecraft, an assessment tool is developed based on lifecycle simulation under uncertainty driven by modular evolutionary stochastic models. First, fractionated spacecraft nomenclature and architecture are clarified, and assessment criteria are analyzed. The mean and standard deviation of risk adjusted...journal article 2012
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De Wit, M.S. (author)This paper reports on an analysis of the uncertainty in wind pressure (difference) coefficients, which are assessed on the basis of generic knowledge and experimental data rather than with a specific (wind tunnel) experiment. The analysis is carried out on time averaged pressure coefficients in a specific case, concerning a low-rise building in...journal article 1999
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ur Rehman, S. (author), Langelaar, M. (author)A novel technique for efficient global robust optimization of problems affected by parametric uncertainties is proposed. The method is especially relevant to problems that are based on expensive computer simulations. The globally robust optimal design is obtained by searching for the best worst-case cost, which involves a nested min-max...journal article 2015
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Eker, S. (author)This documentation describes a system dynamics simulation model developed to be used in a policy analysis study for the Dutch gas sector. Focusing on uncertainties, an exploratory modeling approach is adopted in this study. This simulation model is used as a platform to generate internally consistent and plausible scenarios within the boundaries...journal article 2015
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Schoups, G. (author), Van de Giesen, N.C. (author), Savenije, H.H.G. (author)A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore needed. We compare three model complexity control...journal article 2008
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Rings, J. (author), Vrugt, J.A. (author), Schoups, G. (author), Huisman, J.A. (author), Vereecken, H. (author)Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a standard method for combining predictive distributions from different models. In recent years, this method has enjoyed widespread application and use in many fields of study to improve the spread-skill relationship of forecast ensembles. The BMA predictive probability density function (pdf) of any quantity of...journal article 2012
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Pande, S. (author)Quantile hydrologic model selection and structure deficiency assessment is applied in three case studies. The performance of quantile model selection problem is rigorously evaluated using a model structure on the French Broad river basin data set. The case study shows that quantile model selection encompasses model selection strategies based on...journal article 2013
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Pande, S. (author)A theory for quantile based hydrologic model selection and model structure deficiency assessment is presented. The paper demonstrates that the degree to which a model selection problem is constrained by the model structure (measured by the Lagrange multipliers of the constraints) quantifies structural deficiency. This leads to a formal...journal article 2013
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Haasnoot, M. (author), Van Deursen, W.P.A. (author), Guillaume, J.H.A. (author), Kwakkel, J.H. (author), Van Beek, E. (author), Middelkoop, H. (author)Exploring adaptation pathways is an emerging approach for supporting decision making under uncertain changing conditions. An adaptation pathway is a sequence of policy actions to reach specified objectives. To develop adaptation pathways, interactions between environment and policy response need to be analysed over time for an ensemble of...journal article 2014
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Haasnoot, M. (author), Schellekens, J. (author), Beersma, J.J. (author), Middelkoop, H. (author), Kwadijk, J.C.J. (author)Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for local or regional decision making on climate...journal article 2015
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Brenner, T. (author), Werker, C. (author)When advising policy we face the fundamental problem that economic processes are connected with uncertainty and thus policy can err. In this paper we show how the use of simulation models can reduce policy errors. We suggest that policy is best based on socalled abductive simulation models, which help to better understand how policy measures can...journal article 2009
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Leijten, M. (author), Koppenjan, J.F.M. (author), Ten Heuvelhof, E.F. (author), Veeneman, W.W. (author), Van der Voort, H.G. (author)Due to the uncertainty involved in many complex infrastructure engineering projects, it is not always possible for managers to establish detailed terms of reference at the departure. Although the flexibility of ‘open’ terms of reference is often indispensible, it makes the arrival at a successful outcome much of a gamble. Complex infrastructure...journal article 2010
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Barros, E.G.D. (author), Van den Hof, P.M.J. (author), Jansen, J.D. (author)This paper proposes a new methodology to perform value of information (VOI) analysis within a closed-loop reservoir management (CLRM) framework. The workflow combines tools such as robust optimization and history matching in an environment of uncertainty characterization. The approach is illustrated with two simple examples: an analytical...journal article 2015
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Jacobs, J.F. (author), Van de Poel, I. (author), Osseweijer, P. (author)The risks of novel technologies, such as nano(bio)technology cannot be fully assessed due to the existing uncertainties surrounding their introduction into society. Consequently, the introduction of innovative technologies can be conceptualised as a societal experiment, which is a helpful approach to evaluate moral acceptability. This approach...journal article 2010
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- Elfeki, A.M.M. (author), Dekking, F.M. (author) journal article 2007
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Loeven, G.J.A. (author), Bijl, H. (author)In this paper a Two-Step approach is presented for uncertainty quantification for expensive problems with multiple uncertain parameters. Both steps are performed using the Probabilistic Collocation method. The first step consists of a sensitivity analysis to identify the most important parameters of the problem. The sensitivity derivatives are...journal article 2009
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Yang, Z. (author), Cauberg, J.J.M. (author), Tenpierik, M.J. (author)Both critical and optimistic claims have been made regarding the performance of heat recovery ventilation systems (HRVS) in dwellings. Such arguments are raised partly because two key aspects are not fully clarified, i.e. the performance criteria and the influence of uncertainties. In the current paper, an assessment method for HRVS considering...journal article 2012