Levee system reliability modeling: The length effect and Bayesian updating

In levee system reliability, the length effect is the term given to the phenomenon that the longer the levee, the higher the probability that it will have a weak spot and fail. Quantitatively, it is the ratio of the segment failure probability to the cross-sectional failure probability. The literature is lacking in methods to calculate the...

System safety assessment under epistemic uncertainty: Using imprecise probabilities in Bayesian network

System safety and reliability assessment relies on historical data and experts opinion for estimating the required failure probabilities. When data comes from different sources, be it different databases or subject domain experts, the estimation of accurate probabilities would be very challenging, if not impossible, and subject to high epistemic...