In this paper the challenges of creating accurate, scalable and usable energy demand models are discussed, in the context of existing simulation and data driven energy demand models. Results from high resolution bottom-up data and simulation-based energy demand analysis from a community energy project are provided. A novel Hidden Markov Modelling and Generalised Pareto (HMM-GP) methodology for simulating synthetic electrical demand profiles is validated for residential buildings at a temporal resolution of five minutes. The corresponding dynamic thermal demands for the various building archetypes within the community are also modelled. This is achieved using automated externally driven IES-VE (building simulation) models for arrays of control profiles, and is also compared against in-situ thermal measurements.@en

This paper examines the major challenges associated with evaluating energy demand in the residential building sector in an integrated energy system modelling environment. Three established modelling fields are examined to generate a framework for assessing the impact of energy policy: energy system models, building stock models and dynamic building simulation. A set of profound challenges emerge when attempting to integrate such models, due to distinct differences in their intended applications, operational scales, formulations and computational implementations. Detailed discussions are provided on the integration of temporally refined energy demand, based on thermodynamic processes and socio-technical effects which may stem from new policy. A detailed framework is discussed for generating aggregate residential demands, in terms of space heating demand, domestic hot water demand, and lighting, appliance and consumer electronics demand. The framework incorporates a pathway for interpreting the effects of changes in household behaviour resulting from prospective policy measures. When long-term planning exercises are carried out using this framework, the cyclic effects between behavioural change and policy implementation are also considered. This work focused specifically on the United Kingdom energy system, however parallels can be drawn with other countries, in particular those with a mature privatised system, dominated by space heating concerns.@en