This study explores the feasibility of creating new mangrove habitats along the Arabian Peninsula coast by comparing ecological benefits with economic costs. Mangroves offer vital ecosystem services—including shoreline stabilization, carbon sequestration, and support for biodiversity and sustainable fisheries—but are under threat from coastal development and climate change. Restoration efforts are increasing, yet proactive habitat creation remains limited.

Focusing on potential coastal slope modification, this study examines whether engineering interventions can make currently unsuitable sites viable for mangroves. Suitability depends on environment’s hydrometeorological and topographical factors. Using open-access data from Deltares, Copernicus, and NASA, the study applies a multi-step geospatial and economic analysis.

First, environmental drivers of mangrove presence are analyzed, followed by modeling the relationship between Above-Ground Biomass (AGB) and environmental conditions. ABG is hypothesized to represent the cumulative influence of all environmental factors, with higher ABG indicating more suitable conditions for mangrove growth. After testing commonly used regression methods, the Random Forest (RF) machine learning algorithm proved to be the most accurate and having the least MSE in modeling existing biomass. Thus, the RF is further used to estimate potential biomass in areas without mangroves, identifying high-potential sites.

For the selected top-performing site, at Dhofar, Oman, a custom-built dredging tool estimates the required excavation volume and potential area gained by modifying coastal slopes. The economic analysis calculates costs based on dredging volume and benefits based on carbon sequestration and blue carbon credit valuation, with additional consideration of other ecosystem services such as aquaculture support, water quality improvement,
coastal protection, and eco-tourism.

Despite high AGB potential, results show that costs far exceed projected benefits. Even under optimistic carbon pricing and full valuation of ecosystem services, the best-case cost-benefit ratio remains around 10-20:1. Therefore, while it is probably ecologically and technically feasible, mangrove habitat creation under current conditions is not economically viable without significant external funding.

Limitations include reliance on existing datasets that may not capture fine-scale nvironmental variability, and exclusion of human factors like land use changes and infrastructure, which ould significantly affect project success. Additionally, while the dredging tool is grounded in geometric and vector calculations, it has not yet been validated against other established methods.