In recent years, increased salt intrusion in surface waters has threatened freshwater availability in coastal regions worldwide. Yet, current future projections of salt intrusion are limited to local regions or changes to single forcing agents. Here, we quantify compounding contributions from changes in river discharge and relative sea level to changing future salt intrusion under a high-emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway, SSP3-7.0) for 18 estuaries around the world. We find that the annual 90th percentile future salt intrusion is projected to increase between 1.3% and 18.2% (median 9.1%) in 89% of the studied estuaries worldwide. Our analysis also indicates that, on average, sea-level rise contributes approximately two times more to increasing future salt intrusion than reduced river discharge. We further show that the return levels of present-day 100-year salt intrusion events are projected to increase between 3.2% and 25.2% (median 10.2%) in 83% of the studied estuaries.

In well-mixed estuaries, the up-estuary salt flux is often dominated by tidal dispersion mechanisms, including tidal trapping. Tidal trapping involves volumes of water being temporarily trapped in dead zones or side channels adjacent to the main channel and released later in the tidal cycle, which causes an additional up-estuary salt flux. Tidal trapping can result from a diffusive exchange between a channel and a trap, or from filling and emptying of the trap by a tidal flow that is ahead in phase compared to the flow in the main channel (advective out-of-phase exchange). This study revisits the dispersive contribution from tidal trapping in a single dead-end side channel using an idealized numerical model. The results indicate that advective out-of-phase exchange yields the largest additional salt flux for the largest realistic velocity phase difference of 90∘. Mixing of the trapped salinity field enhances the dispersive effect for small velocity phase differences. A continuous diffusive channel-trap exchange also enhances the dispersive trap effect when the velocity phase difference is small, but can dampen it when the phase difference is large. We demonstrate that the effect of a trap is twofold: firstly, channel-trap exchange alters the salinity field and introduces an additional salt flux in the main channel over a distance equal to the tidal excursion length; secondly, the altered salinity gradients are advected in both up- and down-estuary direction, influencing the tidal salt flux over twice the excursion length.

An extensive field campaign, the Ems-Dollard Measurements (EDoM), was executed in the Ems Estuary, bordering the Netherlands and Germany, aimed at better understanding the mechanisms that drive the exchange of water and sediments between a relatively exposed outer estuary and a hyper-turbid tidal river. More specifically, the reasons for the large up-estuary sediment accumulation rates and the role of the tidal river on the turbidity in the outer estuary were insufficiently understood. The campaign was designed to unravel the hydrodynamic and sedimentary exchange mechanisms, comprising two hydrographic surveys during contrasting environmental conditions using eight concurrently operating ships and 10 moorings measuring for at least one spring–neap tidal cycle. All survey locations were equipped with sensors measuring flow velocity, salinity, and turbidity (and with stationary ship surveys taking water samples), while some of the survey ships also measured turbulence and sediment settling properties. These observations have provided important new insights into horizontal sediment fluxes and density-driven exchange flows, both laterally and longitudinally. An integral analysis of these observations suggests that large-scale residual transport is surprisingly similar during periods of high and low discharge, with higher river discharge resulting in both higher seaward-directed fluxes near the surface and landward-directed fluxes near the bed. Sediment exchange seems to be strongly influenced by a previously undocumented lateral circulation cell driving residual transport. Vertical density-driven flows in the outer estuary are influenced by variations in river discharge, with a near-bed landward flow being most pronounced in the days following a period with elevated river discharge. The study site is more turbid during winter conditions, when the estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) is pushed seaward by river flow, resulting in a more pronounced impact of suspended sediments on hydrodynamics. All data collected during the EDoM campaign, but also standard monitoring data (waves, water levels, discharge, turbidity, and salinity) collected by Dutch and German authorities are made publicly available at 4TU Centre for Research Data (https://doi.org/10.4121/c.6056564.v3; van Maren et al., 2022).

We investigate the changes in surface water salinity intrusion lengths for estuaries around the world under influence of climate change. To do this, we make use of information from global data sets on present river geometry and present and predicted future river discharges, mean sea levels and tidal ranges, which we combine with various models for salt intrusion lengths. The used predictions are based on the RCP8.5 climate scenario and we use 2050 as time horizon, with the 10-percentile lowest discharge as representative value used as input in the intrusion length calculations. The salt intrusion models are two parametric descriptions and a semi-analytical model. With this, we calculate absolute and relative changes in salt intrusion length for a selection of estuaries around the world, to eventually scale up the analysis and develop a global map of changes in salt intrusion around the world under influence of climate change. The results so far indicate that many estuaries may be expected to experience a relative increase of salt intrusion length of over 10%. We also investigate which of the changing forcings most strongly affects the intrusion lengths and what type of estuary is most sensitive to changes. For most systems, the changes in river discharge characteristics are the most influential change, exceeding the influence of sea level rise. This study highlights the importance of studying the effect of climate change on estuarine salt intrusion in more detail, both in global analyses as in system specific detailed studies.