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71 records found

Journal article (2026) - Joris G.W. Beemster, Stefan A. Talke, Ivan D. Haigh, Ben S. Hague, Grace C. Levins, Dirk S. van Maren, Antonius J.F. Hoitink
Flooding is typically perceived as a sudden and unpredictable hazard. Here, we show that recurrent flooding can occur at highly predictable times in tidally dominated coastal systems. This predictability stems from phase-locking of tidal constituents and constituent pairs with the solar day, causing peak tides to recur at consistent local times set by regional tidal propagation. Using tide-gauge records from the United States and the United Kingdom, we quantify the intraday timing of coastal flood events and show strong clustering at specific hours, particularly where semidiurnal or mixed tides dominate. For example, floods in Boston cluster around noon and midnight, whereas in southern California they occur in the morning. Sites with stronger non-tidal variability show weaker clustering. This temporal predictability extends beyond nuisance flooding to larger consequential events involving inundation, road closures and infrastructural damage, highlighting opportunities for anticipatory risk communication, emergency planning and time-sensitive coastal adaptation. ...
Preprint (2026) - R.J.A. van Weerdenburg, Thomas Veerman, Meike Traas, Jan-Willem Mol, D.S. van Maren, Dannie Beks, Maarten van der Vegt, Bram van Prooijen
Two field measurement campaigns were carried out in the Dutch Wadden Sea in winter 2023–24 and in early spring 2025. The campaigns were designed to understand and quantify sediment transport and exchange between morphological units at two spatial scales: on larger scale between two adjacent tidal basins and on smaller scale between individual channels and shoals. These observations support ongoing research to better understand sediment dynamics in the Wadden Sea, and thereby to improve sediment management strategies essential for maintaining coastal functions in the Dutch coastal system over short (days–months) to long (decades) timescales.

The resulting dataset contains point measurements at five locations in the first campaign and eight locations in the second campaign, including (1) near-bed flow velocities and velocity profiles, (2) wave characteristics, (3) suspended sediment concentrations and transport rates, and (4) local bed level dynamics, as well as data on the sediment composition of (intertidal) seabed samples. Measurements were collected simultaneously for a period of six to eight weeks in both campaigns, although some instruments collected data for only four weeks in the Winter 2023–24 campaign.

This article documents the field observations and data processing, and highlights potential applications. This dataset may contribute to a better understanding of sediment dynamics in the Dutch Wadden Sea, but also advance our understanding of channel-shoal sediment exchange mechanisms in general. It provides the field data for investigating fundamental processes controlling sediment dynamics in tidal systems, such as tide- and wind-driven flows and transport, shallow water wave dynamics, wave and current-induced resuspension, and sediment bed stability.

The data are publicly available in three versions (raw, filtered and tailored datasets) at 4TU Centre for Research Data at https://doi.org/10.4121/bbb85feb-15f9-476f-9598-b6509392117d (van Weerdenburg et al., 2026). ...
Journal article (2026) - Jiamin Chen, Chunyan Zhu, Dirk Sebastiaan van Maren, Leicheng Guo, Weiming Xie, Fan Xu, Yuan Xu, Zheng Bing Wang, Qing He
Hydropower dams induce downstream sediment starvation, influencing fluvial morphology. With the focus commonly on morphological changes, an aspect of sediment starvation that has received much less attention is the impact of changes in the sediment grain size distribution (GSD) on these morphological changes. In this study, we investigate the effects of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) on the multi-fraction sediment transport and bed recovery in the middle-lower Yangtze River. Based on long-term field data (1987–2021), we evaluate how fine (d < 0.031 mm), medium (0.031–0.125 mm), and coarse (d > 0.125 mm) fractions differentially respond to dam regulation. Our findings reveal a progressive coarsening of suspended sediment and identify three distinct dam-induced sediment regimes: static armored gravel bed, active bed armoring, and strong erosion. Within the first ~350 km downstream of the TGD, erodible sediments, especially fine and medium fractions, have been almost entirely depleted. In contrast, the subsequent 750 km reach has emerged as the dominant sediment source, increasingly characterized by medium and coarse fractions over time. In addition, tributaries now supply fine-grained sediment during the wet season, whereas lakes, acting as long-term sediment storage zones, release previously deposited material during the dry season. Both sources are playing an increasingly important role in modulating the GSD of the middle-lower Yangtze. These findings shed lights on the dam-induced multi-fraction sediment recovery, offering valuable guidance for the sustainable management of river systems influenced by upstream dams. ...
Journal article (2026) - Dongfeng Xie, Zheng Bing Wang, Haifeng Gao, Dirk S. van Maren, Jian Zeng
Many estuaries worldwide have been significantly modified by land reclamation, influencing hydrodynamics and ultimately bed level changes. However, detailed observations documenting how hydrodynamic and morphological changes interact, especially revealing positive feedback mechanisms strengthening the original intervention, remain scarce. This study investigates the morphodynamic response in the macro-tidal, highly turbid Hangzhou Bay (China) over the past three decades to interventions, using unique datasets of annual bathymetry (1991–2019) and synchronous hydrography before and after intensive reclamation (1999, 2019). The analysis reveals severe accretion within the inner bay, with an average bed level rise of 1.21 m (total volume ∼ 2.2 × 109 m3) since 1999, concurrent with a drastic 54.6% reduction in intertidal storage volume. Two key morphological parameters, the ratio of intertidal storage volume to channel volume (Vs/Vc) and the relative tidal amplitude (a/h) systematically decreased by 43% and increased by 6.5%, respectively, thereby enhancing flood dominance. All key hydrodynamic and sediment transport parameters, current velocity, suspended sediment concentration (SSC), tidal volume and sediment flux, showed strong correlations with the tidal range at the bay mouth. Despite a ∼ 30% reduction in mean current velocity and tidal volume from 1999 to 2019, SSC paradoxically increased by 47–133%, and sediment flux rose by ∼44%. The changes are driven by a positive feedback mechanism: the loss of accommodation space and increasing flood dominance promote sediment import and accelerated deposition, which in turn further reduces channel volume and reinforces the tidal asymmetry. This work reveals a key feedback loop accelerating the transition of macro-tidal estuaries towards flood dominant, rapidly infilling and highly turbid systems in response to land reclamation. Such knowledge is key to sustainable sediment management in turbid macrotidal estuaries. ...
Journal article (2026) - Florent Grasso, Eliott Bismuth, Dirk Sebastian van Maren, Régis Walther, Anna Zorndt, Hans Burchard, Sophie Defontaine, Frank Kösters, Robert Lafite, Lloyd Reese, Aldo Sottolichio, Thijs van Kessel, Joris Vanlede
Tidal rivers and estuaries may experience high levels of suspended particulate matter (SPM), which impacts water quality and ecosystem functioning. The processes controlling the development of estuarine turbidity maxima (ETM) are fairly well understood. However, predicting the maximum SPM concentration in an estuary based on aggregated parameters (estuarine dimensions, river discharge, tidal range) remains, up to now, impossible without extensive in-situ measurements and/or numerical models. This study introduces an approach that links the strength of the ETM to the tidal, river, and morphological characteristics of a system. Using in-situ data from contrasting meso- to macro-tidal estuaries, we found a consistent pattern of maximum SPM concentrations within a two-dimensional parameter space. The resulting turbidity diagram reveals a high SPM hotspot in estuaries with specific forcing conditions, corresponding to intermediate relative tidal amplitudes and freshwater Froude numbers. This multi-site research advances our predictions of ETM intensity in tide-dominated estuaries, offering a straightforward method to explore potential turbidity trajectories under various human pressures. ...
Book chapter (2026) - Richard Marijnissen, Reinier Schrijvershof, Roy van Weerdenburg, Bas van Maren
The Ems estuary faces rising turbidity and increased flood risk due to sea-level rise. We investigated three Nature-based Solutions (NbS) through hydro-morphological modeling to address these issues by 2100: converting a polder to wetland, facilitating salt marsh growth with brushwood groynes, and re-using dredged sediment. Without NbS, turbidity is projected to increase, especially with sea-level rise. Reconnecting a polder can help reduce turbidity in the Dollard while expanding facilitating new wetland, but may not fully counteract the increased sediment import projected with sea-level rise. Extracting mud from the Delfzijl harbour is the most effective measure in reducing turbidity, while marsh expansion with brushwood groynes does not significantly affect turbidity. Nevertheless, groynes facilitate both marsh expansion as well as significant local flood risk reduction. ...

Upscaling sediment management strategies for climate resilience in a transboundary estuary

Review (2026) - Richard J.C. Marijnissen, Yuting Tai, Joanna Staneva, Mindert B. de Vries, Sara P. Cobacho, Martin J. Baptist, Dirk S. van Maren, Jantsje M. van Loon-Steensma, Pushpa Dissanayake, Dennis Oberrecht, Dirk Post, Wei Chen
The Ems Estuary faces existential challenges including flood risk, increasing turbidity, and biodiversity loss, all of which may intensify under future climate scenarios and require transboundary collaboration between the Netherlands and Germany. Addressing these challenges requires compliance with EU, national, and local regulations. Simultaneously each nation pursues socioeconomic benefits from the restoration through a holistic, system-based approach. This study synthesizes the key processes driving flood risk, hyper-turbidity, and salinization within the Ems Estuary. From this understanding the paper catalogues the planned and implemented pilot measures from both countries to advance their climate adaptation plans. Both nations share a common vision of leveraging the high turbidity of the estuary as an asset in climate adaption, e.g. for land raising, dyke reinforcement or habitat creation. Building on the pilot projects and shared visions, three transboundary upscaling strategies involving sediment management are proposed: (A) land elevation using dredged sediment; (B) multifunctional flood defences incorporating nature-based solutions; and (C) habitat creation and restoration to enhance ecological resilience. The Ems Estuary offers valuable insights for global transboundary estuarine management, illustrating how innovative sediment management and transboundary cooperation can be achieved to support climate adaptation and sustainable development. The study underscores the need for harmonized governance, standardized success metrics, and cross-border planning to enable effective upscaling. ...
Journal article (2026) - Joris G.W. Beemster, Stefan A. Talke, Dirk S. Van Maren, Nathalie Giloy, Anna Wünsche, Wei Zhang, Florent Grasso, Antonius J.F. Hoitink
Natural estuarine morphology exerts strong control over tidal propagation. Human activities, such as dredging and land reclamation, modify the natural geometry, altering tidal dynamics and the ecosystems linked to them. Here we analyse changes in tidal dynamics, specifically the amplitude and propagation of tides, over decadal to centennial timescales, using archival maps, hydrographic surveys, tide gauge records and modern records from 25 estuaries worldwide, spanning the coast to their landward boundaries. Over the past two centuries, local interventions have typically amplified tidal ranges, accelerated tidal propagation and shifted tidal duration asymmetry. The most pronounced changes occurred far inland, often more than 100 km from the coast. Land reclamation and channel deepening are the most widespread and impactful interventions, affecting nearly all systems studied. The magnitude and inland location of maximum changes point to local human activities as the dominant drivers, exceeding the influence of long-term processes such as sea-level rise and natural subsidence and demonstrating that anthropogenic modifications have historically had the larger influence on estuarine water levels. Recognizing this human footprint opens opportunities for targeted local management strategies to reverse past changes, reduce flood risk and build resilience to climate change. ...
Journal article (2026) - Zaiyang Zhou, Zejun Wu, D. S. van Maren, Xinyi Shen, Jun Ding, Jianzhong Ge
Storm surges pose significant threats to coastal populations and livelihoods, and rapid, accurate spatiotemporal forecasting is crucial for mitigating their impacts. In recent years, deep learning models have shown strong forecasting potential, offering new solutions for storm surge prediction. In this study, we developed a storm surge prediction model based on the Adaptive Fourier Neural Operator. The model effectively captures spatiotemporal relationships between meteorological forcing and storm surge dynamics at a spatial resolution of 0.05°. Unlike models that rely solely on historical data, our approach incorporates continuously updated typhoon information as input, allowing it to respond dynamically to changes in storm track and intensity. When tested on Tropical Storm Pulasan (2024) and Typhoon In-Fa (2021), the model achieved 48-h mean spatial root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) of 0.28 m and 0.27 m, respectively, with correlation coefficients (CORRs) exceeding 0.69 and 0.85 relative to numerical simulations used as the training reference. In addition, validation against observations from multiple tide gauges yielded station-averaged RMSEs of 0.35 m and 0.34 m, CORRs of 0.74 and 0.78, and peak surge errors of 0.18 m and 0.28 m, respectively. These results demonstrate the model's strong potential for operational storm surge forecasting and emergency management. ...
Journal article (2026) - Dongfeng Xie, Dirk S. van Maren, Zhijun Dai, Cunhong Pan, Jian Zeng, Zheng Bing Wang, Bo Jiang
While the seasonal sediment signal in estuaries has been largely attributed to river-modulated advective processes, the potential dominance of internal morphodynamic feedback, particularly in systems with highly mobile beds, remains poorly quantified. Using an extensive data set comprising over 180 tidal cycles of suspended sediment concentration (SSC) measurements (April, July and November 2018) alongside concurrent hydrographic and bathymetric surveys, we investigated seasonal SSC variations in the upper Qiantang Estuary, a macrotidal system in China with active morphological changes. The results showed that the observed SSC exhibited distinct seasonal patterns superimposed on tidal fluctuations. SSC showed a strong positive correlation with tidal range under normal river discharge conditions. Summer SSC values exceeded those in spring and winter by 2–3 times. Three distinct seasonal regimes are driven by a morphodynamic feedback loop. This loop initiates as high river discharges erode the bed and amplifies tidal (and bore) energy, which subsequently drives intense sediment resuspension and rapid accumulation; which in turn leads to a low-energy adjustment phase, setting the stage for the next cycle. The system exhibited moderate flood-ebb SSC asymmetry under normal conditions but extreme flood dominance during tidal bore events. Furthermore, high discharges reduced SSC by ∼50% through dilution effects while simultaneously inducing bed erosion and tidal amplification, which subsequently elevates SSC in the following months. This study establishes that active morphological evolution is the fundamental driver of seasonal sediment dynamics, providing a new mechanistic framework for similar high-energy estuarine systems. ...
Journal article (2026) - Chunyan Zhu, Weiming Xie, Leicheng Guo, Dirk Sebastiaan van Maren, Wenting Wu, Fan Xu, Yuan Xu, Naiyu Zhang, Zheng Bing Wang, Qing He
Tidal flats provide essential ecosystem services but are increasingly threatened by reduced sediment supply and human activities, requiring close monitoring and understandings in estuaries. We focus on the four tidal flats with a total area of 1800 km2in the Yangtze Estuary and systematically evaluate their morphodynamic evolution based on consistent bathymetry data over 60 years (1958–2022). While fluvial sediment supply has declined since the mid-1980s, all four tidal flats in the estuary sustained accretion until 2010, demonstrating a lag of 20–30 years in estuarine morphological response to sediment decline. However, note that accretion primarily occurs on higher parts of the shoals, whereas erosion dominates in the subtidal zones. This is mainly attributed to the combined impact of saltmarsh expansions, reclamation, and channel scour and dredging. It suggests that part of the eroded sediment from channels deposits on adjacent shoals, leading to a regional sediment budget balance, particularly in the central channel-shoal complex with the navigation channel. Moreover, the initiative of removing Spartina from the shoals, a fast-spreading invasive species that benefits shoal accretion but not native species, might disrupt the ongoing accretion of high shoals and induce overwhelming erosion and sediment loss. One management strategy to counteract these impacts and restore tidal flats is to make beneficial use of the dredged and trapped sediment from the North Passage, an annual amount of approximately 50 million m3, to the adjacent shoals, though how to sustainably manage the sediments remains another concern. ...
Journal article (2026) - Roy van Weerdenburg, Thomas Veerman, Meike Traas, Jan Willem Mol, Bas van Maren, Dannie Beks, Maarten van der Vegt, Bram van Prooijen
Two field measurement campaigns were carried out in the Dutch Wadden Sea in winter 2023–2024 and in early spring 2025. The campaigns were designed to understand and quantify sediment transport and exchange at two different spatial scales: on larger scale between two adjacent tidal basins and on smaller scale between individual channels and shoals. The presented dataset contains point measurements at five locations in the first campaign and eight locations in the second campaign, including (1) near-bed flow velocities and velocity profiles, (2) wave characteristics, (3) suspended sediment concentrations and transport rates, and (4) local bed level dynamics, as well as data on the sediment composition of (intertidal) seabed samples. Measurements were collected simultaneously for a period of six to eight weeks in both campaigns, although some instruments collected data for only four weeks in the Winter 2023–2024 campaign. This article documents the field observations and data processing, and highlights potential applications. The dataset is collected for a better understanding of sediment dynamics in the Dutch Wadden Sea, but also to advance our understanding of channel-shoal sediment exchange mechanisms in general. The field data enables the investigation of fundamental processes controlling sediment dynamics in tidal systems, such as tide- and wind-driven flows and transport, shallow water wave dynamics, wave and current-induced resuspension, and sediment bed stability. The data are publicly available in three versions (raw, filtered and tailored datasets) at 4TU Centre for Research Data at https://doi.org/10.4121/bbb85feb-15f9-476f-9598-b6509392117d. ...
Journal article (2025) - Zaiyang Zhou, Yu Kuai, Kailin Huang, Dirk Sebastiaan van Maren, Jialin Pang, Zhenwu Wang, Yonghui Zhu, Jianzhong Ge
Accurate and efficient prediction of spatiotemporal variations in the distribution of substances in fluids (SIFs) is crucial for various aspects of fluid mechanics related research and applications, involving for instance, material transport quantification, water quality assessment, and engineering condition analysis. This study proposes a framework for resolving the spatiotemporal distribution of SIFs such as salt and suspended sediment based on water levels and flow velocities. The framework incorporates a deep learning model based on a classic neural operator (DeepONet) architecture, which consists of a feature network and a position network to encode the characteristics of input variables and the problem domain. Numerical simulations were performed to generate the needed datasets. The framework was well-validated by predicting salinity and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) distributions in two idealized cases and a real-word case, demonstrating its efficacy and robustness. Time-series validation further demonstrated the prediction accuracy of the framework. The deep learning model is also capable of enhanced-resolution predictions, enabling the generation of high-resolution spatial distributions of SIFs from low-resolution hydrodynamic data. Both bottom and surface layers of the water column were analyzed, revealing that the mapping relationships between hydrodynamics and SIF distributions can be accurately captured throughout the water column, despite variations in correlation coefficients. Due to these capabilities and advantages, additional data sources can be integrated into the framework in the future, highlighting its considerable potential for broader applications in aquatic environments. ...
Journal article (2025) - Zaiyang Zhou, Jianzhong Ge, Dirk Sebastiaan Van Maren, Hualong Luan, Wenyun Guo, Jianfei Ma, Yingjia Tao, Peng Xu, Yu Kuai, More Authors...
A comprehensive multi-year field campaign, the North Passage Channel Measurements (NP-ChaM), was designed and executed to enhance our understanding of the hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics in the North Passage, the primary navigation channel of the Changjiang Estuary, China. The NP-ChaM campaign comprised eight observational sites and spanned 50 d, distributed over 4 years, including two dry seasons and two wet seasons. A series of tripod systems, equipped with multiple instruments, were deployed on the seabed to monitor near-bed physical processes reliably.

The resulting dataset comprises the following: (i) fluid motions, encompassing pressure, flow velocity and direction (at the bottom and throughout the entire water column), and wave patterns; (ii) near-bed environmental conditions, including temperature, salinity, and turbidity (at the bottom and across a near-bed 1-meter range); (iii) supplementary meteorological data sourced from credible providers; and (iv) preliminary results from post-processing, showcasing the practical application of the data, such as lateral flows and turbulent kinetic energy characterizations.

This dataset is especially valuable due to its extensive temporal and spatial coverage, as well as the high concentrations characterizing many of the observations (from several grams per liter to tens of grams per liter). Conducted annually from 2015 to 2018, the NP-ChaM campaign facilitated detailed observations of seasonal variations in environmental conditions and associated physical processes. The eight observational sites, positioned on either side of the deep channel, enable quantifications of channel–shoal exchanges, along-channel flow dynamics, and saltwater intrusion. This dataset is suitable for advancing our understanding of along-channel and cross-channel dynamics in a channel–shoal system and for calibrating numerical models. The dataset has undergone rigorous quality control to ensure reliability and accuracy. ...
Journal article (2025) - Chunyan Zhu, D. S. van Maren, Leicheng Guo, Weiming Xie, Chaofeng Xing, Zheng Bing Wang, Qing He
Human interventions influence sediment dynamics, and understanding these mechanisms is essential for predicting short-term and long-term estuarine development. The Deep Channel Navigation Project (DCNP) in the Yangtze Estuary is such a large infrastructural intervention that substantially alters sediment exchanges between channels and shoals and may thereby influence this estuarine development. However, the effect of these constructions on channel-shoal sediment exchange is up to now poorly known. In this study, we use an extensive dataset collected both in channels and on shoals and a numerical model to clarify the exchange mechanisms driving sediment transport patterns in a strongly anthropogenically modified environment. The results indicate that the stepwise construction of hydraulic structures leads to gradual changes in sediment exchange. The first phase was characterized by partially blocked sediment exchange with northward sediment transport towards the main channel and to the northern flats (2002–2010). Next, a transition period was characterized by weaker horizontal sediment exchange and reduced sediment supply (2010–2016). Since 2016, more efficient structures blocking sediment exchange further hinder northward transport and promote deposition on the southern flats. These processes point to the important role of engineering works in strengthening the southward growth of the delta. Moreover, data analyses suggest that northward over-jetty flow during high water induces a net sediment flux towards the channel due to water level gradients. The residual flow controls the net sediment transport both in the longitudinal and lateral direction over the tidal flats. Therefore, a clockwise residual circulation cell forms in the channel-shoal system, contributing to the channel siltation. These findings shed important insights into the role of sediment exchange in channel siltation and large-scale hydrodynamic and delta development. Such knowledge is crucial for sustainable future management of delta distributaries. ...
Journal article (2025) - Zaiyang Zhou, Yu Kuai, Jianzhong Ge, Bas van Maren, Zhenwu Wang, Kailin Huang, Pingxing Ding, Zhengbing Wang
Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) are increasingly being used in various scientific disciplines. However, dealing with non-stationary physical processes remains a significant challenge in such models, whereas fluid motions are typically non-stationary. In this study, a PINN-based method was designed and optimized to solve non-stationary fluid dynamics with shallow water equations in a polar coordinate system (PINN-SWEP). It was developed and validated with a classic circular basin case that is well-documented in scientific literature. In the validation case, the wind-induced water surface fluctuations are less than 1 cm, posing challenges in modeling. However, our PINN-SWEP model can accurately simulate such tiny water surface fluctuations and resolve complex fluid motions based on limited and sparse data. A boundary discontinuity problem associated with the use of a polar coordinate system is further discussed and improved, thereby enhancing the applicability of PINN in water research. The methodology can provide an alternative solution for numerical or analytical solutions with high accuracy. ...
Journal article (2025) - T. Bailey, L. Ross, H. M. Schuttelaars, D. S. van Maren
This study examines the local, intratidal effects of suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) on the hydrodynamics and vertical mixing in the Ems Estuary, located on the border between Germany and The Netherlands, during summer and winter seasons when the estuary turbidity maximum (ETM) is located upstream and adjacent to the study site, respectively. Measurements of density, SSCs, turbulent kinetic energy dissipation, and current velocity were collected and analyzed over a semi-diurnal tidal cycle in August of 2018 and January of 2019 as part of the collaborative Ems-Dollard Measurement (EDoM) campaign. During August, the estuary turbidity maximum was located 25 km upstream from the measurement site and local SSCs were low. Results revealed that under these conditions, suspended sediment minimally impacted vertical mixing by stabilizing density near-bottom during flood tide, while typical salinity-induced tidal straining patterns dominated. During January, the ETM was located only 5 km upstream of the measurement site leading to higher local sediment concentrations. Salinity-induced straining of the density occurred on early flood tide, creating stratification that suppressed vertical mixing. The suppression was enhanced by the contribution of vertical gradients in SSC to density, as signified by the gradient Richardson number. Suppression of vertical mixing by sediment-enhanced stratification was most significant within the hour following maximum flood currents when elevated velocity shear occurred. The variability observed between the local dynamics during August and January were attributed to greater sediment concentrations due to the ETM proximity in January. The intratidal asymmetry of vertical mixing observed under higher SSCs likely has implications for sediment transport. ...
Book chapter (2024) - Huib de Vriend, Zhengbing Wang, Bas van Maren, Zhong Peng
The Rhine-Meuse-Scheldt Delta is a low-lying delta in the Netherlands and Belgium. Its three major rivers, which drain a significant part of Northwest Europe, come together in a complex system of islands and channels. The delta is densely populated and of major economic interest to these countries. As most of it lies below mean sea level, it is heavily protected by major flood defence works. These strongly interfere, however, with the natural system, leading to a variety of undesired responses. The same goes for the numerous other human interventions with the system. Innovative methods are developed to mitigate or compensate these effects. ...
Abstract (2024) - Reinier Schrijvershof , Bas van Maren, Mick van der Wegen, Ton Hoitink
The morphological configuration of estuaries and tidal basins influences future development because the channel-flat pattern and geometry control tidal dynamics and, as a result, residual sediment transport patterns. Large-scale human alteration of estuarine plan-form and channel dimensions, as a result of land reclamation, influences long-term evolution, because the existing balance of sediment import versus export is disrupted. The morphodynamic response to land reclamation is, however, slow, impacting the system for decades to centuries. Consequently, there are usually multiple human interventions cumulatively impacting the system. Our understanding of the cumulative effects of land reclamation and other anthropogenic interference is limited because observations usually do not span the complete morphological adaptation time. The Ems estuary (bordering The Netherlands and Germany) provides an unique site to study the effects of the cumulative impact of land reclamations and 20th-century human interference. Extensive storm surge-formed basins have been gradually reclaimed over a period of 500 years in this well-documented estuary, and dredging works dominated in the past century. Our objective is to quantify the effects of land reclamations and channel dredging on the historic evolution of the Ems estuary from century-scale observations combined with numerical morphodynamic modelling. We compiled a digitized bathymetric dataset, spanning nearly the full reclamation period, from historical maps, nautical charts, and recent sounding observations. The dataset was used to reconstruct the morphological evolution of the estuary over the past 500 years. The centennial-scale morphodynamic trends show that the system responded to land reclamation by subtidal infilling and evolved from a multichannel system separated by shoals to a single channel system flanked by fringing flats. The long-term geometric changes show that the main system-scale morphodynamic adaptation is controlled by the effects of land reclamation. The present-day evolution is additionally influenced by the effects of 20th-century dredging works. A process-based morphodynamic model (Delft3D-FM), forced with a synthetic spring-neap tidal cycle, was used to investigate the Ems estuary channel evolution in response to historical land reclamations. Simulation results showcase the transformation from an initially flat-bed bathymetry to a system with multiple channels and tidal flats when historic storm surge basins provide extensive intertidal areas. Simulations in which these former storm surge basins are reclaimed result in a single-channel system, confirming the influence of land reclamations on the observed evolution. The results of this study emphasize that, contrary to what is generally assumed, pre-dredging estuarine morphologies are often far from pristine. Ongoing research focuses on quantifying the interplay between natural and human-driven factors in century-scale channel evolution. ...
Journal article (2024) - R. A. Schrijvershof, D. S. van Maren, M. Van der Wegen, A. J.F. Hoitink
Land reclamations influence the morphodynamic evolution of estuaries and tidal basins, because an altered planform changes tidal dynamics and associated residual sediment transport. The morphodynamic response time to land reclamation is long, impacting the system for decades to centuries. Other human interventions (e.g., deepening of fairways or port construction) will add more morphodynamic adaptation timescales. Our understanding of the cumulative effects of anthropogenic interference with estuaries is limited because observations usually do not cover the complete morphological adaptation period. We aim to assess the impact of land reclamation works and other human interventions on an estuarine system by means of digital reconstructions of historical morphologies of the Ems Estuary over the past 500 years. Our analysis demonstrates that the intertidal-subtidal area ratio altered due to land reclamation works and that the ratio partly restored after land reclamation ended. The land reclamation works have led to the degeneration of an ebb and flood channel system, transitioning the estuary from a multichannel to a single channel system. We infer that the 20th-century intensification of channel dredging and re-alignment works accelerated rather than caused this development. The centennial-scale observations show that the Ems estuary evolution corresponds to a land reclamation response following tidal asymmetry-based stability theory as it moves toward a new equilibrium configuration with modified tidal flats and channels. Considering the long history of land reclamation in the Ems Estuary, it provides an analogy for expected developments in comparable tidal systems where land reclamations were recently carried out. ...