Human footprint on estuarine tidal hydrodynamics
Joris G.W. Beemster (Wageningen University & Research)
Stefan A. Talke (California Polytechnic State University)
Dirk S. Van Maren (Deltares, TU Delft - Civil Engineering & Geosciences)
Nathalie Giloy (SHOM)
Anna Wünsche (Bundesanstalt für Wasserbau, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel)
Wei Zhang (Hohai University)
Florent Grasso (Institut Francais de Recherche pour l’Exploitation de la Mer)
Antonius J.F. Hoitink (Wageningen University & Research)
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Abstract
Natural estuarine morphology exerts strong control over tidal propagation. Human activities, such as dredging and land reclamation, modify the natural geometry, altering tidal dynamics and the ecosystems linked to them. Here we analyse changes in tidal dynamics, specifically the amplitude and propagation of tides, over decadal to centennial timescales, using archival maps, hydrographic surveys, tide gauge records and modern records from 25 estuaries worldwide, spanning the coast to their landward boundaries. Over the past two centuries, local interventions have typically amplified tidal ranges, accelerated tidal propagation and shifted tidal duration asymmetry. The most pronounced changes occurred far inland, often more than 100 km from the coast. Land reclamation and channel deepening are the most widespread and impactful interventions, affecting nearly all systems studied. The magnitude and inland location of maximum changes point to local human activities as the dominant drivers, exceeding the influence of long-term processes such as sea-level rise and natural subsidence and demonstrating that anthropogenic modifications have historically had the larger influence on estuarine water levels. Recognizing this human footprint opens opportunities for targeted local management strategies to reverse past changes, reduce flood risk and build resilience to climate change.
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