This study analyzes the production of green hydrogen using dedicated offshore wind power in the Dutch North Sea region. The analysis is based on a detailed techno-economic model that simulates physical flows and estimates the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH). However, the model’s outputs depend on user-provided inputs and evaluating all possible inputs is computationally infeasible. To this end, “optimization with constraint learning” is employed, where surrogate machine learning models are trained on simulation data and embedded in mixed-integer optimization problems. The surrogate models are trained on 4096 simulation runs and achieve a mean absolute percentage error of ≤[jls-end-space/]3% for physical flow-related outputs, and an error of ≈[jls-end-space/]10% for the LCOH-related outputs. Once trained, these surrogates enable one to solve stakeholder–specific problem instances in sub-second solve times, supporting rapid scenario analysis and trade-off exploration.

Ambitious offshore wind energy targets in the North Sea necessitate innovative solutions for efficiently delivering energy to onshore demand locations. Wind-to-hydrogen systems offer a promising pathway, with three archetypes of system configurations: centralized onshore electrolysis (C-ON), centralized offshore electrolysis (C-OFF), and decentralized offshore electrolysis at each wind turbine (D-OFF). This study introduces a high-resolution, time-dependent simulation framework capable of analyzing offshore wind-to-hydrogen systems with a focus on operational dynamics and comprehensive cost estimation. The framework enables detailed analysis of D-OFF, capturing its unique dynamics driven by direct connections to individual wind turbines, including the impacts of dynamic operation. A comprehensive system analysis, spanning from the wind farm to the hydrogen offtaker, reveals a wide cost range, with Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOHs) ranging from 3.0 to 10.5€/kgH₂ post 2030. Among the different scenarios analyzed, C-OFF with proton exchange membrane electrolysis achieves the lowest LCOHs due to a reduced need for offshore electrical infrastructure, economies of scale, and efficient dynamic operating characteristics. D-OFF with alkaline electrolysis incurs the highest costs and faces operational challenges, such as electrolyzers shutting down when they occasionally fail to reach the minimum load thresholds, lowering hydrogen production. We illustrate the trade-offs between system configurations’ cost, production rate, and electrolyzer stack lifetime across configurations. Insights from this study can be utilized as a starting point for informed decision-making for large-scale wind-to-hydrogen deployment in the Dutch North Sea region.

Conceptions of a future hydrogen economy have undergone a significant evolution over the past 50+ years. This study identifies three distinct ‘Waves’, or periods of high expectations for a hydrogen economy. The First and Second Waves were followed by declining optimism; the Third Wave is ongoing today. The three Waves are analyzed through a multi-method literature review, and we specifically analyze the First Wave through key historical sources and contextual analysis. We argue that the hydrogen economy emerged in the 1970s as a techno-utopian narrative within the scientific community, where hydrogen was envisioned as the ultimate energy carrier, driven by nuclear energy. Characteristics of the techno-utopian narrative include utopian terminology, dystopian future images, and neglect of negative side effects. During this period, the hydrogen economy did not develop beyond the conceptual phase. The Second Wave, starting in the mid-1990s, witnessed a resurgence of interest in hydrogen, particularly in the mobility sector. Governmental support and media portrayal fueled public enthusiasm, but practical challenges and misleading information resulted in disillusionment with the hydrogen economy ideal by the late 2000s. Today, in the Third Wave, hydrogen is repositioned as an energy vector for a more sustainable future, primarily as a carrier of (variable) renewable energy sources. Lessons from earlier Waves emphasize the importance of affordable renewable energy for hydrogen production, realistic objectives, a developed hydrogen infrastructure, and cross-sector collaboration. By addressing these elements, the Third Wave can avoid past pitfalls and advance hydrogen's role in a sustainable energy future.