Understanding the natural low flow of a catchment is critical for effective water management policy in semi-arid and arid lands. The Geba catchment in Ethiopia, forming the headwaters of Tekeze-Atbara basin was known for its severe land degradation before the recent large scale Soil and Water conservation (SWC) programs. Such interventions can modify the hydrological processes by changing the partitioning of the incoming rainfall on the land surface. However, the literature lacks studies to quantify the hydrological impacts of these interventions in the semi-arid catchments of the Nile basin. Statistical test and Indicators of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) were used to identify the trends of streamflow in two comparatives adjacent (one treated with intensive SWC intervention and control with fewer interventions) catchments. A distributed hydrological model was developed to understand the differences in hydrological processes of the two catchments. The statistical and IHA tools showed that the low flow in the treated catchment has significantly increased while considerably decreased in the control catchment. Comparative analysis confirmed that the low flow in the catchment with intensive SWC works was greater than that of the control by >30% while the direct runoff was lower by >120%. This implies a large proportion of the rainfall in the treated catchment is infiltrated and recharge aquifers which subsequently contribute to streamflow during the dry season. The proportion of soil storage was more than double compared to the control catchment. Moreover, hydrological response comparison from pre- and post-intervention showed that a drastic reduction in direct runoff (>84%) has improved the low flow by >55%. This strongly suggests that the ongoing intensive SWC works have significantly improved the low flows while it contributed to the reduction of total streamflow in the catchment.

The spatiotemporal variability of the Land Use/Cover (LULC) is a strong influence on the land management and hydrological processes of a river basin. In particular in semi-arid regions like the Tekeze-Atbara (T-A) basin, accurate information about LULC change is a prerequisite for improved land and water management. The human-induced landscape transformations in the T-A basin, one of the main tributaries of the Nile River, were investigated for the last four decades (1972–2014). Separate LULC maps for the years 1972, 1989, 2001, and 2014 were developed based on satellite images, Geographic Information System (GIS) and ground information. Change detection analysis based on the transitional probability matrix was applied to identify systematic transitions among the LULC categories. The results show that > 72% of the landscape has changed its category during the past 43 years. LULC in the basin experienced significant shifts from one category to other categories by 61%, 47%, and 45%, in 1972–1989, 1989–2001, and 2001–2014, respectively. Although both net and swap (simultaneous gain and loss of a given LULC during a certain period) change occurred, the latter is more dominant. Natural vegetation cover, including forests, reduced drastically with the rapid expansion of crops, grazing areas and bare lands during the first two decades. However, vegetation started to recover since the 1990s, when some of the agricultural and bare lands have turned into vegetated areas. Forest land showed a continuous decreasing pattern, however, it has increased by 28% in the last period (2001–2014). In contrast, plantation trees have increased by 254% in the last three decades. The increase of vegetation cover is a result of intensive watershed management programs during the last two decades. The driving forces of changes were also discussed and rapid population growth and changing government policies were found to be the most important.

The Upper Tekezē-Atbara river sub-basin, part of the Nile Basin, is characterized by high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall and streamflow. In spite of its importance for sustainable water use and food security, the changing patterns of streamflow and its association with climate change is not well understood. This study aims to improve the understanding of the linkages between rainfall and streamflow trends and identify possible drivers of streamflow variabilities in the basin. Trend analyses and change-point detections of rainfall and streamflow were analysed using Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests, respectively, using data records for 21 rainfall and 9 streamflow stations. The nature of changes and linkages between rainfall and streamflow were carefully examined for monthly, seasonal and annual flows, as well as indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHA). The trend and change-point analyses found that 19 of the tested 21 rainfall stations did not show statistically significant changes. In contrast, trend analyses on the streamflow showed both significant increasing and decreasing patterns. A decreasing trend in the dry season (October to February), short season (March to May), main rainy season (June to September) and annual totals is dominant in six out of the nine stations. Only one out of nine gauging stations experienced significant increasing flow in the dry and short rainy seasons, attributed to the construction of Tekezē hydropower dam upstream this station in 2009. Overall, streamflow trends and change-point timings were found to be inconsistent among the stations. Changes in streamflow without significant change in rainfall suggests factors other than rainfall drive the change. Most likely the observed changes in streamflow regimes could be due to changes in catchment characteristics of the basin. Further studies are needed to verify and quantify the hydrological changes shown in statistical tests by identifying the physical mechanisms behind those changes. The findings from this study are useful as a prerequisite for studying the effects of catchment management dynamics on the hydrological variabilities in the basin.