Mangrove forests are important (sub)tropical intertidal ecosystems providing coastal protection and other ecosystem services like carbon storage and biodiversity. In view of the loss of these forests many rehabilitation projects have started, but unfortunately these efforts often fail. A main cause for coastal erosion is a disrupted (fine) sediment balance due to human interventions. This imbalance prevents establishment of propagules (floating mangrove seeds) at intertidal areas and the early growth of planted mangroves. Coastal solutions such as permeable dams have aimed to stop the erosion, but we need additional systematic methodologies to understand the coastal system.

The objective of this thesis is to extend the physical and ecological understanding of coastal mangrove systems, especially of currents, sediment pathways and propagule pathways, to improve rehabilitation strategies using Demak (Central Java, Indonesia) as study area. Demak's coastline suffers from erosion problems, originating from extensive land use by fish ponds and land subsidence. An idealized morphostatic 3D model was set up in Delft3D-4 to simulate the hydrodynamics of the area, influenced by the interaction between flows due to river discharge, tides and wind. The simulations are used as input for the SedTRAILS particle tracking model to compute sediment and propagule pathways.

The model results support that sediment supplied by alongshore currents and riverine sediment could serve as source for the coastline. The river plume is at the same time obstructing as well as trapping sediment and propagules, because stratification prevents mixing of the sea and river water. However, sediments suspended near the bed could be transported underneath the river plume towards the coast by estuarine circulation. Another lesson learnt is that sediment (suspended in the water column) and propagules (floating around the water surface) do not follow the same pathways, as for propagule dispersal the wind direction is of much larger influence than tidal currents. The simulations confirmed that seasonal variability in wind direction could significantly influence the establishment area and availability of propagules, and old fish pond bunds can increase the establishment area for propagules. Sensitivity analysis show that the timing of propagule release within one tidal cycle (flood-ebb) influences the probability to successfully establish on the nearby coast. A propagule survival module is developed (based on inundation-free period and bed shear stress) as stormy seasons may increase the sediment establishment, but the larger bed shear stresses may lower the survival of propagules.

Although this modelling study is focusing on Demak, there are many other similar mangrove coasts around the world where an idealized model would enable to understand where the sediment and propagules are going and the travel time from source to sink. Permeable bamboo dams would be recommended to add to the model in further research, because they could increase the survival of propagules by reducing bed shear stresses and increase the establishment of propagules by trapping them. In conclusion, this research has made a start in counteracting coastal erosion and improving the success of mangrove forest rehabilitation by studying sediment and propagule pathways, and developing a propagule survival module.