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Bert Daniëls

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Petrochemicals from oil, natural gas, coal and biomass

Production costs in 2030-2050

Journal article - Tao Ren, Bert Daniëls, Martin Patel, K. Blok

Methane, coal and biomass are being considered as alternatives to crude oil for the production of basic petrochemicals, such as light olefins. This paper is a study on the production costs of 24 process routes utilizing these primary energy sources. A wide range of projected energy prices in 2030-2050 found in the open literature is used. The basis for comparison is the production cost per t of high value chemicals (HVCs or light olefin-value equivalent). A Monte Carlo method was used to estimate the ranking of production costs of all 24 routes with 10,000 trials of varying energy prices and CO2 emissions costs (assumed to be within $0-100/t CO2; the total CO2 emissions, or cradle-to-grave CO2 emissions, were considered). High energy prices in the first three quarter of 2008 were tested separately. The main findings are:•Production costs: while the production costs of crude oil- and natural gas-based routes are within $500-900/t HVCs, those of coal- and biomass-based routes are mostly within $400-800/t HVCs. Production costs of coal- and biomass-based routes are in general quite similar while in some cases the difference is significant. Among the top seven most expensive routes, six are oil- and gas-based routes. Among the top seven least expensive routes, six are coal and biomass routes.•CO2 emissions costs: the effect of CO2 emissions costs was found to be strong on the coal-based routes and also quite significant on the biomass-based routes. However, the effect on oil- and gas-based routes is found to be small or relatively moderate.•Energy prices in 2008: most of the coal-based routes and biomass-based routes (particularly sugar cane) still have much lower production costs than the oil- and gas-based routes (even if international freight costs are included). To ensure the reduction of CO2 emissions in the long-term, we suggest that policies for the petrochemicals industry focus on stimulating the use of biomass as well as carbon capture and storage features for coal-based routes.@en

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2050 Decarbonisation of the Dutch Steelmaking Industry

Master thesis - A.M. Keys, Andrea Ramirez, W. de Jong, H.H. Hansen, Bert Daniëls, Marit van Hout

Since the birth of industrial steelmaking in the Netherlands in 1918, the blast furnace production process has been used and is now capable of producing almost 7 million tonnes of crude steel annually. This level of steel production has brought significant employment and economic growth to the Netherlands, but has come at a cost to the environment. The Dutch steelmaking industry was responsible for producing 12.6 million tonnes of CO2 in 2017, making it the greatest CO2 emitting entity within Dutch industry. A broad range of technologies are being researched aiming to achieve deep decarbonisation of the steel sector. One of the most promising CO2-reducing technologies being developed directly uses electricity for the electrochemical reduction of iron oxide to produce iron, and ultimately steel. However, the high CO2-reduction potential is compromised by inhibiting significantly greater energy costs then other decarbonisation options. By 2050, the electricity system in the Netherlands is expected to be primarily based on renewable energy sources (RESs). The shift towards intermittent sources of electricity is expected to increase the fluctuation and uncertainty of electricity prices. The ability of electricity-based steelmaking technology to operate flexibly, with respect to its production rate, may aid in reducing overall energy costs. By responding to electricity prices, through ramping up and down of production, peak prices can be avoided and low prices can be capitalised on. Alongside the potential cost-saving, this may also serve to increase the integration of RESs. This study analyses the potential of flexible operation of such technology in the Netherlands based on two scenarios of the European electricity system in 2050. Based on these scenarios, it is found that for such technology to benefit from flexible operation, capital costs must inhibit some economies of scale, or be lower than anticipated, for electricity cost savings to outweigh additional capital costs of oversizing the steelmaking technology system. Relative to other European countries, the Netherlands is able to achieve greater electricity cost savings. This is likely due to the expected high penetration of offshore wind in 2050, which helps to provide more consistent periods of low-priced electricity due to its high annual capacity factor relative to other RESs.