In the aftermath of Hurricane Ike in 2008 in the United States, the “Ike Dike” was proposed as a coastal barrier system, featuring floodgates, to protect the Houston-Galveston area (HGA) from future storm surges. Given its substantial costs, the feasibility and effectiveness of the Ike Dike have been subjects of investigation. In this study, we evaluated these aspects under both present and future climate conditions by simulating storm surges using a set of models. Delft3D Flexible Mesh Suite was utilized to simulate hydrodynamic and wave motions driven by hurricanes, with wind and pressure fields spatialized by the Holland model. The models were validated against data from Hurricane Ike and were used to simulate synthetic hurricane tracks downscaled from several general circulation models and based on different sea level rise projections, both with and without the Ike Dike. Flood maps for each simulation were generated, and probabilistic flood depths for specific annual exceedance probabilities were predicted using annual maxima flood maps. Building damage curves were applied to residential properties in the HGA to calculate flood damage for each exceedance probability, resulting in estimates of expected annual damage as a measure of quantified flood risk. Our findings indicate that the Ike Dike significantly mitigates storm surge risk in the HGA, demonstrating its feasibility and effectiveness. We also found that the flood risk estimates are sensitive to hurricane intensity, the choice of damage curve, and the properties included in the analysis, suggesting that careful consideration is needed in future studies.

Analyzing the spatial-temporal changes in tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the east China coastal ocean (ECCO) to quantify the magnitude of poleward and landward migration of TCs is of significant importance for coastal disaster mitigation and planning due to its susceptibility to the impacts of TCs. In this study, the TCs that affected the ECCO from 1949 to 2022 are classified into three typical types of tracks using the k-means clustering method, mass moments, and track interpolation based on TC location, shape, and intensity information. Type 1 is a northwestward track, Type 2 is a northwest to northeast-turning track, and Type 3 is a northwest to northeast-turning offshore track. Type 1 tracks mainly make landfall in southern China, while Type 2 predominantly makes landfall in eastern China. Moreover, the proportion of Type 1 decreases while their landfall percentage increases over time, and the proportion of Type 2 tracks is increasing. The probability of TC effects on the eastern and northern parts of the ECCO is increasing, and the boundary where the TC center reaches after landfall is shifting landward. During the period from 1994 to 2022, there has been a significant migration in TC tracks, with the mean centroid of the TCs affecting the ECCO shifting westward by 0.66° in longitude and northward by 1.26° in latitude, which means the magnitude of the poleward shift is about twice that of the landward shift. This migration appears to have been pre-conditioned by a combined influence of a weakening westward steering flow, reduced vertical wind shear, and warmer sea surface temperature Our findings provide valuable insights into the longitudinal and latitudinal migration of TC tracks and have important implications for disaster prevention, mitigation planning, and the adjustment of crucial coastal protection zones in the ECCO and similar regions around the globe.

Hurricane Ike, which struck the United States in September 2008, was the ninth most expensive hurricane in terms of damages. It caused nearly USD 30 billion in damage after making landfall on the Bolivar Peninsula, Texas. We used the Delft3d-FM/SWAN hydrodynamic and spectral wave model to simulate the storm surge inundation around Galveston Bay during Hurricane Ike. Damage curves were established through the relationship between eight hydrodynamic parameters (water depth, flow velocity, unit discharge, flow momentum flux, significant wave height, wave energy flux, total water depth (flow depth plus wave height), and total (flow plus wave) force) simulated by the model and National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) insurance damage data. The NFIP insurance database contains a large amount of building damage data, building stories, and elevation, as well as other information from the Ike event. We found that the damage curves are sensitive to the model grid resolution, building elevation, and the number of stories. We also found that the resulting damage functions are steeper than those developed for residential structures in many other locations.